No one can see the future. But there's no harm in some enlightened and educated guessing. TIME presents a thinking person's guide to the year to come.

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Cuba
AFTER CASTRO

Fidel, who is 80 and suffering a grave but unspecified abdominal condition, handed provisional power to his brother Raśl, 75, last summer after undergoing major surgery. Raśl possesses little if any of his sibling's charisma. Then again, more than 5 billion bbl. of untapped oil were discovered in 2004 off Cuba's northwest coast—a commodity that can help any leader buy more charisma.

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