Walkabout: Holiday Economics

Friday, May. 4, 2001 When America sneezes, economists are fond of saying, the rest of the world catches the flu. And while the rest of the globe snivels over lemon tea, whole swathes of the travel industry come down with financial pneumonia, bronchitis and hypothermia. The belt-tightening that accompanies every successive gloomy report on U.S. output squeezes the travel industry that much harder. Holidays are wonderful but wasteful, restaurants an unjustifiable joy. And no one really needs business class or executive suites. Or so the thinking goes.

So it is with the ecstasy of a blind man restored to sight that I announce WE'VE GOT IT ALL WRONG. The axiomatic truth, the revolutionary revelation, the extraordinary, exultant fact is this: the more time you take off, the richer you get. And they've proved it. In China!

Beijing has given everyone a week's break from Labor Day (May 1). This is not some kind of great Communist celebration of the noble worker. Rather it's hard- nosed economics. In a country the size of a respectable continent, over the seven days to May 8, 50 million people will go sightseeing. In Shanghai, the city government estimates 80,000 visitors a day will arrive by bus alone during the week. The city's business chiefs expect retail sales to outstrip last year's May Day takings by 10%. Airlines across the country have added hundreds of extra domestic charter flights. Travel agents nationwide have reported a surge in breaks to Bangkok, Hong Kong and Macau. It's a veritable boom.

Now federal bankers in the U.S. and Europe will tell you such "holiday economics" is nonsense. I dare say they're right -- most economic theorizing turns out to be finely argued gibberish in the end. (Economists believe human beings are rational -- so ask one to explain the revival of the kick scooter). But the undeniable reality is that while the sober, stay-at-home U.S. is staring recession in the face with economic growth of 1.1%, China is exploding while kicking back, expanding by an annual rate of 8.1% and rising. Shanghai's output rocketed by 9.8% in the first quarter. What is it they say about a billion Chinese?

The clear message is that you're only hurting yourself and, worse, everyone else, if you cut back on your time off. Hard work isn't virtuous; it's a swear- to-God economic atom bomb. Taking cheaper, shorter breaks is only marginally less destructive. Only the holy, high-spending holidaymaker can save us from financial hell.

So this year, plan your vacations big. Stretch the week to three. Choose an exquisitely expensive hideaway boutique. Diners, do your duty and forego all but oysters and champagne. Flyers, the world needs club class and first class even more. Forget owing it to yourself. You owe it to us all.