SUKREE SUKPLANG / REUTERS

POPULIST: Thaksin urges villagers to vote for his party's candidates in the Feb. 6 parliamentary election

The Common touch
	He's tough and controversial, but Thaksin Shinawatra looks poised to ride massive popular support to a second term as Thailand's Prime Minister
	By Michael Schuman | Baan Dongsaensuk

Posted Monday, January 31, 2005; 20:00 HKT
Winai Tatasuthai, a 45-year-old cowherd living in the tiny northeastern Thai hamlet of Baan Dongsaensuk, owes Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra debts of both money and gratitude. Three years ago, Winai could barely make ends meet; today, he's a modestly successful entrepreneur, proudly serving up plates of roasted chicken from his own barbecue pit at a roadside marketplace. Winai's life changed when, in 2001, Thaksin set aside 1 million baht—about $25,000—for each of Thailand's 80,000 hamlets to form a fund that would provide low-cost loans to farmers, artisans and other needy villagers. Winai borrowed $250 from the $2 billion Village Fund, bought a few chickens and a three-wheel motorcycle with an attached charcoal grill, and began rumbling around villages, hawking wings and drumsticks. The 20 chickens he now sells daily net him a profit of $7.50—tripling his annual income. Winai has bought a pickup truck and expanded his herd of cows, and he no longer struggles to pay his 16-year-old son's school fees. "Life is getting much better," he says. "I didn't have enough money to do anything. Now I have the freedom to do what I want."

Baan Dongsaensuk's residents and tens of thousands of other poor Thais who have borrowed from the Village Fund will, with perseverance and luck, also pay off their loans. Debts of gratitude fall due on Feb. 6, when Thais vote in a national parliamentary election. Polls show that members of the Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party, which Thaksin founded, could corral 350 of the legislature's 500 seats, up from around 300. Under Thailand's parliamentary system, this overwhelming majority would virtually ensure that Thaksin, a self-made telecommunications billionaire who took office in 2001, will remain as Prime Minister and hold an even firmer grip on power.

Thaksin's economic policies, known as Thaksinomics, are key to his electoral appeal. Designed to support farming and cottage industries and to boost the incomes of the country's downtrodden, his programs have contributed to an impressive economic boom. Over the past four years, Thailand's GDP has surged by a total of 22.2%—the second fastest rate in East Asia after China. Rural incomes have grown by 20% annually over the past two years, according to Goldman Sachs. Thaksin's policies have turned him into something of a popular hero, hailed by his fans as the decisive, no-nonsense leader who has lifted Thailand from the doldrums of the Asian financial crisis, restored Thai pride, and lavished cash on the forgotten backcountry. Not even the Dec. 26 tsunami, which left more than 5,300 dead and caused an estimated $1 billion worth of damage in Thailand, is expected to knock the country far off stride. Morgan Stanley predicts its GDP will grow 5.7% in 2005. Thaksin "has made things happen," says Somboon Nonta, another Baan Dongsaensuk villager. "We can see it and we can touch it."

Yet perhaps no other leader in Asia today has proved more controversial than the 55-year-old former policeman. "He is dividing the country right down the middle," says Senator Jon Ungpakorn, a vocal critic of the Prime Minister. To his admirers, Thaksin is an economic visionary with the courage and strength to tackle intractable problems—from entrenched bureaucracy to rural poverty—and to restore order after decades of political upheaval. To his detractors, he is a near autocrat who runs roughshod over opponents and relentlessly extends his own power—for example, by naming his cousin as head of the armed forces and appointing his brother-in-law as deputy national police chief. Everything Thaksin does is colored by this impassioned debate. In 2003, a nationwide crackdown on the drug trade left more than 2,500 people dead and human-rights activists' howling about a lack of due process and the possibility that some who died had no involvement with the drug business. The administration blamed most of the deaths on drug dealers' killing one another out of fear that their associates would turn them in. "Murder is not an unusual fate for wicked people, and the public should not be alarmed by their deaths," said Thaksin. Jakrapob Penkair, a government spokesman, says the antidrug campaign is consistent with the law and will likely continue if Thaksin wins a second term: "People around the country express much satisfaction in the success of this policy." Last October, there was more bloodshed when Thai security forces responded to an escalating Islamic insurgency in the south of the country, leaving 85 Muslim protesters dead—most of them suffocated after spending hours stacked handcuffed in the back of military trucks. Thaksin expressed regret for the loss of life and acknowledged that the local authorities erred in how they transported the detainees. But he also stressed that security forces were facing a hostile situation organized by people with militant ties. "This is not about religion at all," he said, "[but] a matter of law and order."

Continued...

	Thailand's Bloody Monday [Nov. 01, 2004] In a day of horror, scores of Thai Muslims in the country's restive south die while in military custody, sparking outrage at home and abroad Southern Discomfort [Mar. 22, 2004] Thailand's Prime Minister is used to getting his way, but the country's restive south seems rapidly spinning out of control The Thaksin Effect [Oct. 21, 2003] Is Thailand's Prime Minister revolutionizing his country's economy—or creating another bubble? The Killing Season [Mar. 05, 2003] Thailand's swift, popular crackdown on drugs has claimed more than 1,000 Publish And Perish [Mar. 25, 2002] Thailand has prided itself on its freedom of the press. Now, the country's (over?)sensitive PM is starting to crack down In The Clear [Aug. 07, 2001] Acquitted of corruption charges last week, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra must now make good on his vision for a more prosperous Thailand More Related Items | Search all issues of TIME Magazine