The radical economic measures Mahathir announced helped to obscure last week's biggest picture: a political putsch, albeit from above, not below. Much was made of the triumph of Mahathir over Anwar in economic policy. (By decree Malaysia's currency suddenly has become pretty much non-convertible, and foreign investors have been blocked from making short-term gains on the local stock market, moves Anwar would have opposed.) But Mahathir's ultimate goal may well have been spoiling Anwar's chance of challenging him as president of the United Malays National Organization, or UMNO, and succeeding him anytime soon as Prime Minister--a post Mahathir clings to in the hope, friends say, that history will honor him both as the builder of modern Malaysia and its deliverer from the current economic crisis. Anwar saw himself, too, in the savior role: he plainly stated that a turnaround for Malaysia required younger blood, a crackdown on corruption and the kind of basic civic liberties (such as press freedom and judicial independence) that Mahathir has long disdained. When an Anwar supporter proclaimed that platform at a June annual meeting of UMNO, it was the first volley in Anwar's own uprising--a fact hardly lost on his boss, or the businessmen and cronies behind him. Mahathir's
counterattack began almost immediately; with last week's coup de grace, Anwar's attempt at rebellion and change was stopped in its tracks.
And what an attack it was. Mahathir threw the book at Anwar, invoking Malaysia's draconian Internal Security Act, the Official Secrets Act and the Women and Girls Protection Act. Anwar vowed to fight both the allegations and his expulsion from UMNO and came out rhetorically swinging, hoping that diatribes against corruption, nepotism and authoritarianism would rally his supporters, which include Muslim and youth groups. But Mahathir's brass knuckles had clearly done their work: analysts were torn only on whether the former whiz kid might have a political role in some distant, post-Mahathir era.
There was a lively debate, however, on what things will look like in the wake of Mahathir's counter-coup. Some believe that with care, judiciousness and flexibility--attributes not often associated with the mercurial Mahathir--the new economic policy measures might just stabilize Malaysia, albeit at the cost of insulation. Others pointed out that cutting off financial flows is a peculiar tack for a nation that owes its past growth to easy money from outside and free trade. Many were reminded of Mahathir's crackdown against political foes in 1987, when his grip on UMNO was last threatened. More than 100 people were jailed, and social freedoms that would likely have expanded over the succeeding years of economic growth were indefinitely put on hold. "I'm scared," says a political activist in Kuala Lumpur. "The Malaysian state is quite relentless and unforgiving if you criticize it. Even a Deputy Prime Minister cannot stand up to this system." Ahmad Azam Abdul Rahman, president of the Muslim Youth Movement of Malaysia, was bolder. He released a statement suggesting that Anwar's enemies had destroyed him to shield themselves from the winds of political reform--which, in Malaysia, is the kind of charge made by people who aren't afraid of doing time in the "Mahathir Marriott," a.k.a. Kuala Lumpur's Kamunting Prison. "They have to silence Anwar by all means for their
Pandora's Box to remain safely sealed," Ahmad Azam said. "We believe this decision is not only a big mistake but a national disaster."
In hindsight, a rift was inevitable between Mahathir, a post-colonial nationalist who has never hidden his resentment of the West, and Anwar, a former Muslim radical who became the West's model for appealing leaders in the world's emerging-market nations. Anwar counts as friends U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Defense Secretary William Cohen. Not long ago, he planned to co-author a book with Michel Camdessus, managing director of the International Monetary Fund.
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R E L A T E D S T O R I E S :
COVER STORY Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad banishes Anwar
CRANKY OLD MAN The PM has a history of lashing out
VIEWPOINT Mahathir rails against financial orthodoxy
INTERVIEW Anwar explains what went wrong
OUT OF LINE Where does the ex-heir go from here?
POLL Does former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim have a future in Malaysian politics?
POLL Will the new currency controls help or hurt the Malaysian economy?
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