A journey through Asia these days can be deceptive. On the surface, there is still a pervasive gloom. Building cranes are idle, shops empty, offices boarded up. But a few specks of light are breaking through the darkness, some of them coming from outside the region. The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut interest rates--twice--and dollars are being pumped into the world economy to save the global financial system. The dollar's weakness against the yen, meanwhile, is a gift to the rest of Asia, where most currencies are still measured against the greenback. Central banks can now reliquefy their economies by cutting interest rates--without rubbishing their currencies.

Asia's crisis, in short, has almost surely bottomed out. Cliff-like falls in GDP and industrial production have stopped. Bare-minimum production, at least, is stabilizing because people have to eat, even in collapsed economies. Things are looking up for the "IMF-3," the trio of countries--South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia--that agreed to follow the International Monetary Fund's prescriptions in return for its bailout cash. Each is running a current-account surplus of more than 10% of GDP, achieved as foreign debt repayments lag, tourism picks up and imports (along with living standards) drop. Although disbursements from the IMF and other multilateral agencies are set to drop next year, the flight of private capital is leveling off. Expect net inflows to rise, which will help stabilize the region's currencies further.

Thailand and South Korea, in particular, are the countries to watch. If they can take advantage of what has suddenly become a favorable external environment, they may not only spur recovery at home but also help lead the rest of the region out of its slump. It won't be easy. Both Thailand and Korea have reached a state of stable disequilibrium: they are liquid, but also insolvent.

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