THE PHILIPPINES: In the first half of the new century, most of the remaining forests will be cut down, and as few as 30% of the animal and plant species once present in the country will survive. Mudslides flowing over denuded fields will wipe out countless homes, and the silt that washes into rivers and lagoons will destroy fisheries. A longer, more vigorous typhoon season will play havoc with rice crops, wounding the economy and forcing the nation to import large amounts of food. Guerrilla warfare, disease and hunger will eventually drive down the birth rate, and by 2050 the population will sink to 55 million, 25% lower than it is now. At that point, things may start to improve, as the rain forest begins to reclaim the hillsides and the mangroves return to the ravaged coastline. But, Linden writes, "much of the country is damaged beyond repair."

NEW YORK CITY: Richer and more resourceful than most locales, New York survives the hard times relatively well, but by 2050 some major changes are evident in midtown Manhattan. The heat is so oppressive that the tall buildings are "camouflaged in greenery"; shade trees are planted in every available spot, from rooftops to sidewalks. The few people walking the streets wear surgical masks and avoid coming close to other citizens; fear of disease is so strong that standoffish behavior is no longer considered rude. The most popular style of dress, which looks like a monk's robe, is worn for practicality. People know that during periodic epidemics they will often be required to slip off the robe and subject it to irradiation while their skin receives a microbe-killing dose of ultraviolet light.

You don't have to agree with Linden's fashion predictions to find most of his visions plausible--and frightening. But he doesn't discount the human race's genius for adaptation and survival. "Over the millennia," he writes, "humanity has proved to be an artful dodger of fate, a defier of limits, a surmounter of seemingly insurmountable obstacles, and a master escape artist from traps laid by nature."

Linden suggests several escape routes to a more benign future, including the use of solar technology and clean fuel-cell-powered cars. But such opportunities will not be taken, he warns, "unless people recognize the dangers lurking just beyond the turn of the millennium."

For now we're muddling along, conducting business as usual. Japan and Russia have new Prime Ministers, and Puerto Rico is welcoming back tourists just months after the devastation of hurricane Georges. Even Wall Street is perking up again. No one wants to believe that the party is coming to an end.

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