In addition, Jiang wants the December 1999 handover of Macau to go smoothly; a recent wave of violence among organized-crime factions in the Portuguese colony does not bode well. There are also a number of important and sensitive milestones to get through, including the 10th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, the 50th of the founding of the People's Republic and the 80th of the May 4 Movement, an early student-led protest. Traditionally, anniversary celebrations in China have been occasions for unrest.

Jiang will be facing his greatest challenges within the party. After lying low for a few years, hard-line critics are once again raising their voices. In a speech made last June but published only in December, veteran Marxist ideologue Deng Liqun broke a three-year silence and detailed the ills that plague the economy. "In recent years, what I have seen and heard makes me feel quite worried," said Deng. The 83-year-old former propaganda chief criticized China's growing income inequality, pointing out that 48 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line and more than 30 million workers have been laid off, while the number of millionaires has grown to more than a million. Deng warned against overemphasizing economic reform. "In some people's hearts, they don't believe anymore that socialism can save China, but they believe capitalism can save China." According to Deng, the Party must unite and correct such ideological flaws. He declared: "In the final analysis, the key [to solving China's problems] lies in our party."

The proliferation of domestic problems has made China less concerned about international reaction to its treatment of dissidents. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao condemned foreign media criticism of the recent political sentences with more than the usual vigor. "There is no conflict between the trials and our efforts to safeguard human rights," said Zhu. He claimed the government was still abiding by the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. While China has yet to ratify the covenant, it continues to win praise abroad for signing it. Even the recent arrests have produced a relatively low-key reaction overseas. The United States said that, although it "deeply deplores" the sentences and called for the immediate release of the dissidents, it believes that China has made progress in human rights, much of it linked to the Clinton visit.

Ultimately, the Chinese government would prefer that dissidents go overseas, where they often lose their effectiveness. Xu refuses to budge. "I told them I would not leave as long as I don't have total freedom here," he told TIME shortly before his arrest. Others, however, have opted to leave. Last month, activists Liu Nianchun and Yao Zhenxian left for the U.S.

The dissident community, within China and without, has never doubted the government's resolve to maintain control. Xu anticipated his arrest and had his bag packed when police arrived. But even after his harsh sentencing, he remains undaunted. In a statement written from jail while in handcuffs last week, Xu condemned his "so-called open trial" as "a means of political persecution," but said he would not appeal the decision. "History will make a correct judgment on me and the China Democracy Party," he concluded. For Xu and others, however, that judgment may be a long way off.

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