Less flashy than a diamond, more mysterious than an opal, the lustrous natural pearl has an aesthetic and material value that reflects its rareness. In the 1890s, Kokichi Mikimoto perfected the process of creating whole cultured pearls by introducing an irritant into an oyster's tissue, thereby making high-quality pearl jewelry more available and affordable. Japan currently exports around $400 million of cultured pearls a year. Whether strung into a classic Tiffany necklace or into a dramatic multi-strand choker for Christian Dior couture, Japanese pearls have become a must-have accessory that never goes out of style. But beneath the luster lurks a mysterious disease that has been killing off oysters in Japan's main pearl farms for the past few years. With no cure in sight, could cultured pearls become as rare as their natural counterparts?

The small island of Masaki in central Japan's Ago Bay was once called Treasure Island because of the riches pearl cultivation brought to its residents. Then, in July 1992, a deadly red tide of poisonous plankton struck the bay. It has recurred almost every year since. The mortality rate of oysters has risen from about 30% to more than 55%. In 1997, the island's pearl revenues were just $1.5 million, 40% of the earnings five years earlier. And there has been a human toll: more than half of the pearl farmers in Masaki have been forced out of business since 1988.

In 1996, a more threatening scourge hit oysters in Ehime prefecture. Since that area provides 70% of Japan's mother-oysters, which are raised to accept the pearl seeds, the mystery disease rapidly spread to other pearl-cultivating sites. "In the case of red tide, we can move our oysters to a safe place," says Nobutaka Yamagiwa, a pearl grower on Ago Bay. "But this time there is nothing we can do but watch oysters die." At some point in the season, growers usually clean the oysters to remove any attachments from the shells. But the new disease makes the shells so fragile that cleaning is impossible. As a result, the quality of the pearls produced by the oysters that do survive has suffered. Experts estimate that only 20% of the total harvest is good enough for jewelry.

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