Leap of Faith
As Indonesia careers toward its first democratic election in decades, reform looks possible--if voters can untangle the politics
By ANTHONY SPAETH
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Daddy's girl: Megawati packs them in at a political gathering in the capital. John Stanmeyer--Saba
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A year ago, Indonesia was ruled by a dictator, Suharto, whose military kept an iron grip on the scattered archipelago, and whose family and friends treated the economy as their personal piggybank. Politics was a joke: Suharto allowed only three parties to function, including his own, and their platforms--and usually their leaders--were pre-determined.
Today, Suharto is in forced retirement, the far-flung provinces are being demilitarized, the kids and cronies are under legal siege and some 140 political parties have materialized to contest a general election in June, the country's first genuine electoral exercise since 1955. Reformasi is the national slogan, and even though the election is 14 weeks away, the campaign is already building up steam. Across the archipelago, from tiny hamlets in Sumatra to the major cities of Java, candidates are setting up local headquarters. Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia's fabled ruler Sukarno, kicks off her campaign this week. In Penjaringan, a ramshackle slum in northern Jakarta, party flags are rustling in the sultry breeze. Suwarno, driver of a three-wheeled taxi, says he is ready for all the benefits of democracy, including perhaps the offer of a bribe for his vote. "Of course I'll take it," he winks, "but that doesn't necessarily mean I'll cast a vote for that party."
If all goes well, Indonesia, with a population of 210 million and an estimated 120 million eligible voters, could become the world's third-most-populous democracy, after India and the United States. But that's a colossal if. And while the next three-and-a-half months will see many campaign promises, political partnerships and shifting fortunes, it will also be a time for well-founded trepidation and national breath-holding. Can the nation reinvent itself in the space of 12 months--with virtually no democratic experience and few truly national institutions? The loosening of Suharto's control has already resulted in waves of ugly violence against minorities, migrants and soldiers in several parts of the country. An actual fraying of the nation is also occurring. In January, the government of President B.J. Habibie suggested that East Timor might be given independence. Last week it allowed separatist leader Xanana Gusmao, convicted of trying to topple the state, to trade his provincial jail cell for house arrest in central Jakarta, where he'll be able to entertain supporters and foreign diplomats.
Once in full swing, the campaigning is unlikely to be peaceful. "The parties are going to exploit primordial sentiments," predicts Josef Kristiadi, head of politics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta. That's something to be feared in Indonesia at any time, and especially now in the depths of an economic meltdown. The economy shrank 13.5% in 1998, and the number of unemployed totals about 20 million. If that isn't enough, the army of civil servants who long benefited from membership in Suharto's ruling Golkar party continue to pull the levers of administrative power. "It's a fight," says political scientist Mochtar Pabotingi, "between those who want to re-establish democracy and those who want to suppress the people and take away their sovereignty." In other words, Suharto's crowd isn't as vanquished as it had appeared to be. (Either Habibie or Armed Forces Chief General Wiranto may run as Golkar's candidate for president in an indirect election scheduled for October or November, the second and probably more important half of the democratic experiment.) Says television talk- show host Wimar Witoelar: "We've been going around in circles, overlooking the fact that Suharto is still in power."
An exaggeration, perhaps, but understandable at a time of political transition with no obvious precedent. India was larger and more diverse when it went democratic after independence in 1947, but it had an admired leadership with staunch anti-colonial credentials. The Philippines in 1986 ejected a dictator who had ruled for more than 20 years. But it had enjoyed decades of earlier democratic experience and possessed many skilled political veterans and a made-to-order heroine in Corazon Aquino, who stepped swiftly into the vacuum and revised Ferdinand Marcos' custom-made constitution. Indonesia is more unwieldy. And its transition, with Suharto's hand-chosen successor, Habibie, governing mostly under the dictator's laws, has been less than decisive. Therefore, it is in for a far larger muddle.
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