Indonesia's Last Chance
Violence and money politics threaten hopes for a free election
By JAMES VAN ZORGE
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Even with outdoor rallies banned, election season could turn bloody. John Stanmeyer--Saba for TIME
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For Indonesia, the stakes have never been higher. Against the backdrop of economic crisis and spreading civil violence, the country is moving closer toward concluding the shaky post-Suharto transition. When Indonesians go to the polls in June, they will have an opportunity to throw the ruling Golkar party out of power. And when national parliamentarians and others convene in October to elect a new President, there is a chance they could choose a credible and legitimate leader. If all of this happens, there will be renewed confidence--not only in Indonesia's ability to restore law and order, but also in its prospects as a viable place to do business.
But what if Indonesia fails? There is a real danger that the campaign season will be marred by internecine violence among the opposition parties. And once the final results for the elections are announced in late June and early July, bitter disputes could erupt between the losing and winning parties. In that case, the stage would be set for an uncertain and potentially dangerous climate in the run-up to the presidential elections. Finally, there is a risk that opposition parties will resort to money politics, like vote-buying, during the presidential selection process. In that case, Indonesia could once again be burdened with a president who is viewed as illegitimate. That would mean more uncertainty and signal to foreign investors that it's time to turn off the lights on Indonesia.
Already the international business community is preparing for the worst. Many expatriates say they are preparing plans to evacuate before the general election. For good reason: Indonesia's campaign seasons are notoriously violent. Even under Suharto's New Order, when only three parties were allowed to contest and Golkar victories were preordained, street rallies could be bloody. This year more than 20 parties will be competing. Don't expect polite discourse.
Although the government has announced a ban on street rallies, the security forces don't have the capacity to enforce the restrictions. And it would be naive to expect the contending parties to accept the ban. The only effective means of campaigning in Indonesia--where symbolism means more than substance--is to bring one's supporters onto the streets. Now that the government has promised free, fair and open elections, who could rationally expect party cadres to stay home and cancel the show?
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