|
|
BUSINESS
MARCH 15, 1999 VOL. 153 NO. 10
|
Firms that ferry tourists from the mainland to Hong Kong--airlines like Dragonair, China Eastern and China Southern, as well as Guangshen Railway and Kowloon Motor Bus--should see increased business. But analysts admit that predictions of a tourism boom are still speculative: Americans, Europeans and Japanese already have their own Disney parks. Wealthy Southeast Asians may still prefer those even if one opens closer to home. "That leaves Hong Kong Disneyland mainly for Chinese tourists," many of whom cannot afford Disney prices, notes DBS Securities research analyst Peter Milliken. The mainland already boasts more than 1,000 unoriginal and sparsely visited theme parks: at one complex in Shanghai, some 3,000 employees cater to just 150 customers a day. In Hong Kong, the new visitors could require an additional 12,200 hotel rooms per night. But the city's current 65% occupancy rate may not improve much, as developers will likely throw up dozens of new hotels near the site itself.
Given past practice, Disney will no doubt have a hand in that cookie jar as well. After watching outside developers profit from its mammoth complex in Orlando, the company filled its Paris Disneyland with on-site hotels and restaurants. That debacle--the European project is saddled with $2.5 billion in debt, and in 1998 eked out a profit of $40 million--reminded the company to limit its exposure in such mega-projects. In Tokyo, Disney only licenses its name and characters and acts as a consultant to the Oriental Land Company, which built the 80-hectare park in 1983 for $1.4 billion. As in Europe, the Americans take a cut of the park's revenues. They'll do the same when a new aquatic theme park--Tokyo DisneySea, currently being built by Oriental Land for $2.9 billion--is completed in 2001.
Some local leaders wonder just how much Disney will squeeze from a park in Hong Kong. "Disney wouldn't have decided to locate in Hong Kong unless the government made them an offer they couldn't refuse," warns one legislator. The Americans, of course, have courted Beijing assiduously: only after Disney's movie division agreed last fall to buy the U.S. distribution rights to two mainland films--one a heavy-handed tearjerker rife with Communist propaganda--did authorities agree to release the animated blockbuster Mulan in China. But Disney chairman Michael Eisner has simultaneously played coy, insisting as recently as last October that the company had no plans to establish another park anywhere in Asia. That same month Australia reportedly rejected a plan to build a Disneyland in Queensland because the company had demanded too many concessions. Hong Kong may not have the same luxury. "If Disney had come to Hong Kong three or four years ago and asked for 170 hectares of free land, they would have been met with a pretty frosty reception from the government," says Milliken. "But now, the government can't afford but to negotiate."
That weakness has struck perhaps the most sour note amid the huzzahs that greeted Tsang's announcement. Although government negotiators insist they will strike a fair deal, legislators fear they may sign away hundreds of millions of dollars worth of land and infrastructure. Activists complain that the project could erode the territory's already frayed environment, destroying marine habitats off the coast of Lantau and increasing noise and pollution levels on the island. "Disney may be environmentally conscious in the U.S., but Tokyo Disneyland still uses styrofoam boxes," says Plato Yip, assistant director of Hong Kong's Friends of the Earth.
Such fears may be as premature as the wild hopes shared by many Hong Kongers. Given the territory's recent experience with high-profile projects, like the airport, which were expected to solve all the city's problems overnight, a note of caution may also be welcome. "Disney is important," says the University of Hong Kong's Hills. "But you can't have an economy that pins all its hopes on one big project." However cute, even Mickey Mouse can't revive Hong Kong all by himself.
Reported by Hannah Beech and Isabella Ng/Hong Kong, Tim Larimer/Tokyo and Mia Turner/Beijing
Top 10 Reasons Why Disneyland Won't Save Hong Kong
10. Donald is still upset over 1997 massacre of local fowl.
9. Two words: typhoon season
8. Local officials are likely to intervene in "Pirates of the Currency Market" ride.
7. New mobile phones are too small for those Mickey ears.
6. Just wait until the Little Mermaid gets a whiff of the "Fragrant Harbor."
5. The Swiss Family Robinson can't afford to pay the rent on their treehouse.
4. One Country, Seven Dwarfs?
3. Jealous local cartoon character Excreman is likely to raise a, er, stink.
2. After the past couple of years, the last thing anyone in Southeast Asia wants is another rollercoaster.
And the No. 1 reason:
1. Let's see how that mouse fares against Hello Kitty.
PAGE 1 | 2
|
|
This edition's table of contents | TIME Asia home
| |
LATEST
HEADLINES:
|
Click Here for the latest regional analysis from TIME Asia
|
|
