All these contradictions have kept Washington and its allies guessing. Few believe Milosevic's attachment to Kosovo is more than skin deep. Some Serbs say he stirred up the crisis to distract attention from the foundering economy. Yet in considering whether to placate the West or defy it, he is operating according to his own calculus of the risk to himself and his regime. The issue comes down to his feeling about the place where the myth of his own power was built. "He doesn't know," says a top U.S. official in Belgrade, "whether caving in makes him lose face to a point that challenges his power, or whether suffering the damage that would be inflicted on his security forces would undermine their control and their loyalty to him."

Many analysts have suggested that he wants to absorb enough punishment to provide cover for handing over Kosovo to international peacekeepers. "It's very Slavic," says the Russian observer. "He needs to be seen as compelled, so he can sell it to the 90% of Serbs who cling to Kosovo emotionally." But it is equally possible that he has something else in mind. Perhaps he thinks he can successfully endure all the bombing the West can muster and still continue to defy its plans for Kosovo, as his enemies exhaust their will before he exhausts his. "He truly believes he is tougher than the West," says a U.S. diplomat.

Milosevic has miscalculated disastrously before, but he has also brilliantly calculated his hold on power. Which will it be this time? There are those in Washington and Europe who hope that he has gone too far in presiding over death and destruction. Perhaps all those NATO missiles and bombs may finally convince the Serbs that they do not need Milosevic ruining their lives any longer. But reports from Belgrade suggest that the air attacks have Serbs rallying to Milosevic as never before. Once again, in Milosevic's Balkans, it is far from clear who has calculated best.

Slobodan Milosevic

BORN  Aug. 20, 1941; in Pozarevac, Serbia

EDUCATION  Graduated from Belgrade University, where he studied law, 1964

FAMILY  He and wife Mirjana ("Mira") Markovic have a son and a daughter

BUSINESS YEARS  Became chief of state-owned Tehnogas, 1973; served as president of Beobank (United Bank of Belgrade), 1978 to 1983

POLITICAL POSITIONS  Belgrade Communist Party chief, 1984; Serbian Communist Party boss, 1987; President of Serbia, 1989; Yugoslav President, 1997

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