Some political analysts in Kuala Lumpur are betting that Mahathir, health permitting, will call early elections, possibly in August. By then, the hubbub over the Anwar trial may well have faded. Economic news should be upbeat for the next few months: Malaysia is starting to rebound from the Asian financial crisis, and the government is predicting GDP growth of 1% this year. But the recovery is vulnerable: the controversial capital controls that Mahathir instituted last September have, despite many contrary predictions, brought the financial stability that he desired. But the controls also encourage about $10 billion of foreign investment to remain inside the country until Sept. 1. As soon as fund managers and corporate finance directors have the option of removing their money without penalty, the result could be an exodus of billions.
The most compelling argument for an early election, however, would be to strike while the opposition is unprepared. UMNO, which holds power in a coalition with 13 smaller partners, is less a ruling party than a permanent governing machine. The two main opposition parties--the Islamic Party of Malaysia (better known by its Malay acronym, pas) and the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP)--have only a tiny minority in the federal parliament, where UMNO's coalition enjoys a two-thirds majority. Power struggles tend to take place within UMNO--Mahathir faced his last big one in 1987--but not in general elections. No independent party has ever won more than 6% of the national vote. UMNO wields formidable political clout; opposition politicians fear it will try to secure votes by resorting to threats, like withholding state spending to districts that vote the wrong way. Mahathir edged close to that tactic in a speech in Sabah last month, before a state election there. "Can Dr. Wan Azizah come up with any money to help the university in Kedah?" he asked. (Azizah has threatened to run against Mahathir in Kedah.)
Earlier this month, Azizah announced a coalition that joined her party to pas, DAP and the social democratic Parti Rakyat Malaysia, or Malaysian People's Party. It's an unstable grouping: pas wants Malaysia to adopt Islamic law, the greatest fear of DAP's predominantly Chinese supporters. Azizah's own National Justice Party is only a few weeks old. The coalition says it will campaign jointly, but its unity will be tested when the parties take on the potentially divisive task of carving up constituencies.
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