Lee was no doubt playing partly to his domestic audience with last week's policy shift: presidential elections are scheduled for next year. Although Lee can't run again, he's eager to help his party's candidate, almost certainly Vice President Lien Chan, who is sure to face a formidable challenge from former Taipei Mayor Chen Shui-bian and from James Soong, a Kuomintang breakaway.. Lee's remarks effectively coopt the platform of Chen, a member of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.
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Lee is also apparently seeking to shore up his legacy by making an indelible stamp on Taiwan's future. According to this logic, by dismissing the One China notion and stressing the Republic of China's view of itself as a sovereign state, it will be impossible for China to absorb the island as a mere province or special autonomous region. "He is intentionally playing the bad cop, trying to gain some more bargaining chips for Taiwan," says Lo Chi-Cheng, a political scientist at the Institute for National Policy Research in Taipei. "It's risky, but sometimes you have to take risks to make gains." And few consider the policy shift reversible. "Whoever becomes the next president will be bound by that policy," says Lo. "It has created a new status quo."
That's true in Taiwan, perhaps, but the ripples from Lee's statement have already turned the waters around the island very choppy. Beijing's response has so far been only rhetorical, though broadsides have come from both the central government and the People's Liberation Army. Whether words transform into missile launches or some other hardware-heavy retaliation is a legitimate question. "The army wants a hard-line response," says a Western analyst in Beijing. The only positive sign is that a scheduled October trip to Taipei by Wang Daohan, Beijing's point man on Taiwan issues, hasn't yet been canceled--despite the fact that Taiwan officials believe they have gained leverage in the next round of talks.
At the White House, the Clinton Administration says that its stern statements have calmed the immediate crisis, but no one is predicting a long peace. "The train wreck is out there waiting to happen," says a White House aide. Agrees Richard Solomon, a former China hand at the State Department: "We're always on the edge of being dragged into a military confrontation across the Strait." And with Sino-U.S. relations at a low, Washington's options in a crisis would be limited. When China shot missiles toward Taiwan in 1996, the U.S. responded by sending aircraft carriers to the area. These days, U.S.-China ties might not be able to withstand that kind of strain. Beijing's announcement of its neutron bomb seemed to be both a warning to Taiwan and a repudiation, of a curious sort, of congressional charges that China had stolen nuclear secrets from the U.S. It was accompanied by a 36-page report attempting to refute the Cox Commission allegations bearing the thumb-in-the-eye title: "Facts Speak Louder Than Words and Lies Will Collapse on Themselves." Says the White House aide: "There's no give in the U.S.-China relationship." As of last week, the delicate give-and-take in the Taiwan Strait had just about evaporated.
Reported by Don Shapiro/Taipei, Mia Turner/Beijing and Douglas Waller/Washington
CIVIL WAR or SEPARATE PEACE?
Taiwan's long journey toward independence
1949 Driven from mainland China by the Communists, the Nationalists set up a provisional government in Taiwan. In response, the communists (PRC) claim the island and vow to seize it
1972 Nixon visits China. The Shanghai Communique, embracing a "One China" policy, is issued
1979 President Carter recognizes PRC as China's legitimate government, with Taiwan a part of China. U.S. Congress counters with a law pledging on-going support of Taiwan
1988 Lee Teng-hui becomes Taiwan's first native-born President. He calls for the opening of more lines of communication with China
1991 President Lee announces an end to 43 years of emergency rule, implicitly recognizing the PRC government
1995 Lee makes an unofficial visit to the U.S. In response, China conducts missile tests near Taiwan
March 1999 China denounces a proposed U.S. anti-missile defense system that would include Taiwan, calling it an encroachment on China's sovereignty
July 1999 Lee asserts Taiwan's independence, saying China should deal with it "state to state." China says it is ready to "smash any attempts to separate the country"
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