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Asia Buzz:
Taiwan Tactics
China
votes with its (two left) feet
By
ADI IGNATIUS
March
13, 2000
Web posted at 11 a.m. Hong Kong time, 10 p.m. EST
I'm having a little trouble following the twists in the China-Taiwan
relationship. A few weeks ago, Beijing snapped the world to attention
by asserting the right to invade Taiwan if its leaders don't get serious
about negotiating reunification. Yikes. But now China says everyone
overreacted, that it was just restating a long-held position that
shouldn't have set off any alarms.
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The point, of course, is that Taiwan goes to the polls to select a
new president next Saturday and Beijing is panicked that Chen Shui-bian,
an outspoken proponent of Taiwan separatism, could win. China will
do anything to make sure he loses. One can only imagine how events
will play out the rest of this week:
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Tuesday: In
a People's Daily editorial, China calls Chen "a really bad guy" and,
in one particularly devastating passage, says it hopes he "lives in
interesting times." Chen's approval rating shoots up 5 points.
Wednesday: China's propaganda department spams Taiwan TV with political
ads that show Chinese President Jiang Zemin claiming that Chen panders
to the religious right. Chen complains that Jiang is starting to "go
negative." Chen responds with his own ads, claiming that Jiang is
pro-abortion.
Thursday: China drops several nuclear missiles on Taiwan. In a People's
Daily editorial, Beijing refers to the bombings as "nothing extraordinary"
and says its policy toward Taiwan hasn't changed. Among the survivors,
Chen's approval rating goes up 10 points.
Friday: China's military launches an invasion of Taiwan, the long-anticipated
"million-man swim." By the time the soldiers wash up on Taiwan's shore,
most decide to defect. Two-thirds of them say they'll vote for Chen.
Saturday: Taiwan goes to the polls. Chen is elected. China blows itself
up. In a People's Daily editorial, Beijing asserts that the self-annihilation
is "just the same-old, same-old."
Post-Script: When the dust settles, Bill Clinton announces that he'll
make a run for China's presidency, saying he's "ready to give something
back."
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