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about Asia Buzz

Subcontinental Drift: Win-Win Verdict
Judge Jafri spared Sharif's life--and Musharraf's career
By APARISIM GHOSH

April 6, 2000
Web posted at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time, 8:30 a.m. EST


And so Nawaz Sharif lives to fight another court battle. For his family and friends, this is probably the best outcome they could have hoped for. Ditto for his deadliest enemy, General Pervez Musharraf.

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In sparing the former Prime Minister the gallows, Judge Rehmat Jafri also saved the dictator the grave embarrassment of having to pardon the man he deposed--as he would have had to under the international pressure that would inevitably have followed a death sentence. A previous Pakistani despot, General Zia ul-Haq, was able to get away with hanging his former political master, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto: but that was during the Cold war, when the Western powers were willing to forgive the occasional act of brutality so long as the brute concerned fought the good fight against communism. The world is now a lot less tolerant of that sort of behavior, and Musharraf, acutely aware that his country cannot afford to antagonize the international community (read: aid donors) any further, would have been obliged to let Sharif live.

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That in turn would have left the general looking effete in the eyes of his fellow soldiers, and a public display of weakness is always dangerous in the hyper-macho military. Musharraf is already seen by some hawkish Pakistani generals as lacking the steel to deal with the old enemy, India. The sight of him bowing to international pressure could conceivably have brought out the long knives of his fellow brass.

But Jafri's verdict puts another kind of pressure on the dictator. Now that Sharif is going to be around a while, Musharraf must prove that other argument for his October coup: that the Prime Minister, despite being democratically elected, deserved to be deposed because he was massively corrupt. Until now, most Pakistanis didn't seem to care that the corruption cases against Sharif were moving at snail's pace: a death sentence for hijacking, terrorism, etc. would have rendered the graft charges moot, anyway. Now, they will expect the dictator to establish Sharif's guilt, and quickly.

The trouble is, corruption cases tend to be drawn-out affairs, as Sharif found out when he pursued his political rival, Benazir Bhutto, on similar charges. And the longer they last, the less the public cares--a fact that has helped many a crooked leader revive an apparently doomed political career. Musharraf may be relieved that Sharif is to live, but the general can't afford to breathe too easily.

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