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S U B C O N T I N E N T A L D R I F T
Only a Warrior Can Deliver Peace
By APARISIM GHOSH
October 22, 1999
Web posted at 2 a.m. Hong Kong time, 2 p.m. EDT
New Delhi's skepticism at General Pervez Musharraf's olive branch is understandable: why should India believe that the man who took South Asia to the brink of war this summer is now serious about reducing tensions along the border? By some accounts, the general masterminded the Pakistani misadventure in Kargil without the knowledge of PM Muhammed Nawaz Sharif. Now that Musharraf is a dictator, he has no need for secrecy or subterfuge--the fourth Indo-Pak war awaits his single order.
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That, at least, is how the coup in Islamabad is viewed by the glass-is-half-empty school in Delhi. But there's another way of looking at the dictator: he represents the best hope for lasting peace on the subcontinent. The reason lies in the very flaw that has doomed every experiment with democracy in Pakistan--real power has always rested with the military.
All Pakistani leaders start off vowing peace and offering to negotiate with India. But Delhi could never fully trust the likes of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif because their promises were not endorsed by the military. With Musharraf, that's no longer a problem. If he is convinced that peace is in Pakistan's best interests, nobody can stop him from achieving it.
And it shouldn't be too difficult to persuade the dictator. Having inherited (or seized, if you like) an economy in shambles and a society in crisis, Musharraf already knows Pakistan can't afford to keep spending billions on military hardware. Indian PM Atal Behari Vajpayee may be in a less desperate situation, but India too has better things to do with its money than spend it on munitions. What South Asia now needs is an honest broker to convince both men that they should be exchanging goods and services, not shells and bullets.
And who is to play this crucial role? Not the United States. Washington has bungled so often in South Asia that it now has no credibility in the region. Not the United Nations, because chief Kofi Annan is seen by subcontinentals as an American pawn. Perhaps one of the Persian Gulf countries can try out for the part. Saudi Arabia has clout with both Delhi and Islamabad. It also has an interest in South Asian peace. For one thing, India and Pakistan are Riyadh's primary sources of manpower. For another, the Saudis are fed up with having to bail Pakistan out of bankruptcy over and over again.
It won't be easy to undo 52 years of suspicion and hostility between India and Pakistan. But Musharraf's coup might, ironically, be the first step in that direction.
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