For or Against?
The majority of Asia opposes an invasion, but those dependent on the U.S. are keeping quiet
The Fallout
How an Iraq conflict affects Asia depends on how long it lasts—and how Muslims react
Among the Faithful
A TIME Special Report on Islam in Asia (Mar. 10, 2002)
Kim Is Going Nuclear
What does North Korea's leader want? And can he be stopped? (Feb. 24, 2003)
Asia and Iraq
A second Gulf conflict could anger and radicalize the region. And now, the stakes are higher than ever (Jan. 20, 2003)
Running on Empty — page 2
In the DPRK's poorest corner, the northeast, conditions are growing dire. Lee Sung Mi, a middle-aged refugee who risked arrest by border guards to get to China last month, says she saw a man who starved to death at the Chongjin train station before she left, something she had not seen since the famine of 1996-97. Lee, who declined to give her real name, has been diagnosed with breast cancer; she pulls up her black sweater to expose breasts mottled with dark splotches. There are no treatments, no medicine in her country. "Things are already as bad as the famine years," says Lee's mother, who walked out with her. "And it will get worse."
Certainly the nuclear crisis is escalating. This month, the U.S. stationed 24 bombers within range of the DPRK and dispatched an aircraft-carrier battle group to the waters between Japan and the Korean peninsula after North Korean jet fighters intercepted an American spy plane. In another apparent move to deter Pyongyang adventurism while the U.S. is occupied with Iraq, Washington sent six Stealth jets to participate in joint U.S.-South Korean war games. Japan got into the act by adding a sophisticated surveillance ship to the waters off the peninsula. Meanwhile, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said last week that the North could develop a new source of weapons-grade nuclear material, enriched uranium, within months, much sooner than previous estimates. The North already possesses spent fuel rods from which plutonium can be extracted to make bombs.
With no solution in sight, the Bush Administration and conservative Washing-ton lawmakers continue to look for ways to persuade Kim to abandon nukes. Sanctions are an imperfect option. Years of economic pressure on Iraq punished the country's innocent civilians but did not topple Saddam Hussein. The same kind of pressure, applied unilaterally by the U.S., is likely to be even less effective against North Korea, because trade between the two countries is already severely restricted. Last year, American businesses sold just $26 million in goods to the North, compared with $145 million in sales to Cuba.
Nevertheless, U.S. officials think there may be ways to strangle North Korea's ruling élite, who live relatively comfortable lives in Pyongyang, without adding to suffering in the countryside. In January, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators proposed a bill to further tighten trade restrictions. The bill also calls for the U.S. to interdict North Korea's missile sales, which netted the country an estimated $100 million to $300 million in hard currency last year. A naval blockade, regarded as an act of war, would probably require international support. Kim says the imposition of sanctions alone would trigger armed conflict.
Another option: Follow the money—and freeze it. Kim is believed to have billions of dollars stashed in bank accounts in Switzerland and possibly more in accounts in Austria, China and Russia. North Korean businesses in Europe—some suspected of acting as fronts for missile sales—have millions in overseas accounts as well, according to Balbina Hwang, a North Korea expert at Washington's Heritage Foundation. Says Hwang: "These financial networks would be one of the best and most effective ways of squeezing the North Koreans."
Almost any attempt to throttle the North will require the participation of China and South Korea, two of North Korea's top trading partners. Neither Beijing nor Seoul is willing to go along with sanctions, preferring to keep the North engaged, in hopes that they can eventually be brought to the bargaining table for talks with the U.S. Even so, diplomats from both countries are letting it be known that they do not have inexhaustible patience for the North's bellicose theatrics. A truly dangerous move—such as reprocessing plutonium from spent fuel rods at the Yongbyon plant, engaging U.S. or South Korean troops or testing a ballistic missile—could change China's thinking. "If the issue is handed to the Security Council, it will be harder to protect Pyongyang," and China would probably go along with international sanctions, says Chinese academic Zhu Feng, director of the international-security program at Beijing University. Should Kim test a nuke or fire a weapon at U.S. or South Korean troops, Zhu says, China "would have to consider breaking up its traditional friendship with Pyongyang ... [by] limiting aid or reducing trade."
Meanwhile, Lee, the cancer victim and refugee, is caught in the middle of global events she barely understands. Sanctions or no sanctions, "Kim Jong Il will be fine, and the high officials will be fine," she says. "It is the average people who will starve to death. My sons, nephews and brothers," she adds, "are still there."
—With reporting by Perry Bacon Jr./Washington, Matthew Forney/Beijing, Kim Yooseung/Yanji and Toko Sekiguchi/Tokyo
