For or Against?
The majority of Asia opposes an invasion, but those dependent on the U.S. are keeping quiet
The Fallout
How an Iraq conflict affects Asia depends on how long it lasts—and how Muslims react
Among the Faithful
A TIME Special Report on Islam in Asia (Mar. 10, 2002)
Kim Is Going Nuclear
What does North Korea's leader want? And can he be stopped? (Feb. 24, 2003)
Asia and Iraq
A second Gulf conflict could anger and radicalize the region. And now, the stakes are higher than ever (Jan. 20, 2003)
Why Asia Fears Bush's War — page 2
Malaysia's perennially outspoken Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has told local business leaders that an attack against Iraq "will simply anger more Muslims who see this as being anti-Muslim rather than being antiterror." And in Indonesia, mainstream Islamic organizations such as the Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah—key allies in the government's attempt to control extremist groups—also oppose an American engagement in Iraq. "I'm afraid the U.S. could lose the support of moderate Muslim groups," warns Syafii Maarif, head of Muhammadiyah, the country's second largest Muslim organization with some 20 million members. "In Indonesia, radicalism will increase because they will see an invasion as another example of America's neo-imperialism."
One of Asia's biggest worries is that such radicalism could result in more bloodshed in the region. While nations like Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines have already shuttered their embassies in Baghdad, serious threats might also loom closer to home. One danger is that incensed radicals will strike "soft targets" frequented by Westerners, as happened in last October's Bali attack, which killed 202 Western tourists and Balinese out for the evening in Kuta. "An attack on Iraq could increase terrorist attacks and help give rise to new recruits who may be even more dangerous," warns Ansyaad Mbai, who coordinates the antiterrorism desk of Indonesia's Ministry for Politics and Security.
Heeding such warnings, many tourists are eschewing Asia's once popular resorts, battering tourist-dependent economies like Indonesia and Thailand that were already wounded by the Bali bombings. A war could hurt Asian economies in other ways, too. Many Asian nations count the U.S. as their largest trading partner, and if a war drags on, slumping American demand will drag Asia down with it. The sinking U.S. dollar is exacerbating the problem by driving up the cost of Asian products overseas. Other Asian countries—particularly the Philippines and Pakistan—depend heavily on foreign remittances from workers toiling in the Gulf, many of whom may now be forced to return home. Meanwhile, sharply rising global oil prices—up 20% since the start of the year—are a further economic worry, especially for huge oil importers like Japan and South Korea.
More pressing is the possibility that conflict in the Gulf will shift global attention from regional crises—especially on the Korean peninsula. While the U.S. suspects that Saddam might have nukes, North Korea's Kim Jong Il has already restarted his nuclear program, and he seems bent on exploiting America's unwillingness to confront two global crises at once. In the past two weeks alone, the North Korean military has confronted an American spy plane in midair and has also test-fired a short-range missile. "We are extremely concerned about North Korea becoming a nuclear power," says Lee Tae Sik, South Korea's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade. "The [North Korea crisis] has to be resolved as soon as possible." That concern reverberates throughout North Asia. "Iraq is so far away that I don't even know where it is on the map," says Kimiko Amari, a 69-year-old janitor in Tokyo. "North Korea is a lot closer to us, and everyone around me is scared of Japan being attacked by North Korea."
Even when America does focus on a geopolitical crisis, some Asians reason, U.S. follow-through has been less than perfect; Afghanistan, after all, is still in shambles and Osama bin Laden remains at large. In recent weeks, Afghan President Hamid Karzai begged Washington not to abandon his beleaguered nation, fearing that its focus on Iraq will sap its enthusiasm for rebuilding last year's battleground. "If the U.S. is perceived to take its eyes off Afghanistan, it will be like opening the door to al-Qaeda," says a senior diplomat based in Kabul. Just two weeks ago, a peacekeeping vehicle was blown up in a Kabul suburb, killing an interpreter, injuring a Dutch soldier and reminding Asians that Afghanistan is still far from peaceful.
For Asia's political leaders, the prospect of a new Gulf war presents a treacherous challenge: they must somehow reconcile the antiwar passions of their own citizens with the necessity of remaining on friendly terms with America—the toughest (and richest) kid on the playground. For now, Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi continues to shy away from criticizing Washington's Iraq policy too openly, while pushing behind the scenes for more decisive action on North Korea. But like Tony Blair in Britain, Koizumi's stance doesn't reflect his electorate's views on Iraq, and his popularity is tumbling as a result. The same goes for Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who has remained one of Washington's most vocal supporters. Arroyo maintains that the link between Iraq and bin Laden is credible, based in part on the expulsion two months ago from Manila of an Iraqi diplomat alleged to have collaborated on an Abu Sayyaf bombing last May of a bar in Zamboanga, in which a U.S. Green Beret died. But many Filipinos disagree with their President, and Arroyo is increasingly isolated back home.
Perhaps the narrowest tightrope is being walked in Pakistan, where President Pervez Musharraf is facing a tide of anti-American resentment that could potentially topple his pro-U.S. military coalition. In a troubling portent last October, Muslim parties swept into power in Pakistan's parliamentary elections. Their support stemmed in part from anger about the deaths of an estimated 3,000 Afghan civilians in air raids and the arrests of prominent Pakistanis by U.S. and domestic intelligence agents. Frustration with the U.S. runs so high that an antiwar protest in Rawalpindi on March 9 attracted 100,000 people, one of the largest demonstrations Pakistan has ever experienced. "Our nightmare," confides a Pakistani army officer in Islamabad, "is that a violent street confrontation erupts between the security forces and anti-U.S. protesters. I'm not sure that our forces would obey their superiors." Such insubordination could catalyze a groundswell that might eventually sweep Musharraf out of office. Iraq may be far away. But in Asia, nobody is entirely shielded from the collateral damage of this looming war.
—With reporting by Aryn Baker/Kabul, Dong Young Shin and Michael Schuman/Seoul, Robert Horn/Bangkok, Farid Hossain/Dhaka, Tim McGirk/Islamabad, Nelly Sindayen/Manila, Jason Tedjasukmana/Jakarta and Michiko Toyama/Tokyo
