Living in a Hot Zone — page 3

Still, Hong Kong's health precautions have stopped short of those of ultra-cautious Singapore. There, nearly 1,700 people have been quarantined—they can't leave their homes, and if they do they may be fined up to $5,650. Teacher Melanie Young, who may have been exposed to SARS by a five-year-old student, was cooking dinner for her husband and two children on March 24 when officials from Singapore's Ministry of Health knocked on her door. They delivered quarantine papers stipulating that she and her kids could not venture outside under any circumstances—not even to buy groceries—for 10 days. During that time she was to check the family's temperature daily and "observe good hygiene." It was the first time Singapore had ever invoked its Infectious Disease Act. "I was surprised but I accepted this," Young says. "I take this seriously, especially when it comes to my children." Indeed, precautions are being taken everywhere. The body of Simon Loh, a Singaporean pastor who died from SARS on March 26, was double-bagged and the casket was hermetically sealed before his cremation. At the 39-year-old's funeral, the first five rows closest to the coffin were empty. The pallbearers wore rubber gloves.

In Hong Kong the economic toll of the outbreak is rising, despite the efforts of government spin doctors. Some 300 Hong Kong workers for U.S. computer maker Hewlett-Packard were sent home last week after an employee came down with SARS. Two important economic sectors—tourism and retail—are expected to be hit hard, hurting an economy already wounded by prolonged deflation and by the effects of the Iraq war. According to investment bank Morgan Stanley, Hong Kong could lose $256 million in tourism revenue over the next two months. Local tour guide Carmen Li hasn't gone to her office for four days—most of her bookings have been canceled, as tourists stay clear of the infected territory.

Potentially more dangerous is the impact on local spending. The city's usually crowded haunts—malls, karaoke bars, movie theaters, nightclubs and restaurants—are eerily devoid of traffic. Tommy Cheung, a lawmaker who represents Hong Kong's restaurant industry, says there has been a 10-15% drop in the local dinner business recently. Yu Pang-chun, chairman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association, reported last week that sales among his association members were down more than 10% compared with the same period last year. That translates into a $50 million-a-week loss in revenue for the city's retailers. The outbreak "is going to have a much greater impact on psychology and consumer confidence than the chicken flu," says Tai Hui, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Overall the SARS effect could cut Hong Kong's GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points this year, according to Deutsche Bank economists.

Business owners are trying to cope. "We are anticipating a 30-50% drop in the near future, and there isn't much we can do about it," says Alex Chan, chief of the retail division of a regional chain of jewelry stores. "We have our staff cleaning the floors and the show windows every hour." Its employees wear gloves and sterilize jewelry before customers try pieces on, but the company has stopped short of instructing staff to wear face masks. "I think wearing masks will scare off customers," Chan says.

Economists say losses will be contained if the SARS outbreak—which is not yet widespread enough to be considered an epidemic—burns out. The prognosis is unclear. Thanks to swift and pervasive e-mail communication and unprecedented collaboration among scientists and doctors worldwide, rapid progress is being made on the research front. Last week, pathologists at the University of Hong Kong scored a breakthrough when they announced the probable SARS culprit was a mutated coronavirus. Their finding, which controverted earlier research that pointed at the paramyxoviridae family of viruses, was confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Still, it's possible that paramyxoviridae, which causes mumps and measles, might play a role in the disease. In the meantime, the identification of the coronavirus has made it possible to come up with diagnostic tests for the disease.

There is other good news. The coronavirus currently is not believed to be airborne, meaning that it can't float through the air like a mushroom spore. Instead, it can only be passed by direct contact with an infected person or with an object they have touched. And, while the number of cases is rising, the toll is not increasing exponentially. Steps such as those taken in Hong Kong and Singapore can strangle the outbreak before it reaches epidemic proportions. "We've come a tremendous distance since three weeks ago," says Chung, the dean of the medical faculty at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "We know a lot more about the disease, the diagnosis and treatment." There is still no sure cure—antibiotics are useless against viruses—but patients in Hong Kong are responding to broad-spectrum, antiviral drugs combined with doses of steroids to reduce inflammation. "Patients are getting better," says Chung. "The majority are now recovering." But Chung quickly adds that the coronavirus has already spread through the Hong Kong community and is making inroads elsewhere. "I think this disease is going to be with us for a long time," he says. The world now has a new viral enemy to contend with, and its deadly capacity is only beginning to be understood.

—Reported by Ilya Garger, Neil Gough, Carmen Lee and Bryan Walsh/Hong Kong, Kay Johnson/Hanoi, Daffyd Roderick/Toronto and Genevieve Wilkinson/Singapore

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