Military Strategy
	Is China Prepared to Fight?
	By Matthew Forney Beijing

Posted Monday, March 22, 2004; 21:00 HKT
Over the past 18 months, Western intelligence agencies have detected an unusually high level of activity in China's shipyards. Workers are riveting together frigates and destroyers at a furious pace, and for the first time have begun building advanced Song-class submarines in two locations. And China's latest-generation nuclear-powered submarine should be ready for launch in 2005, about five years ahead of schedule. The rate of construction has stepped up "to an amazing degree," says a Western diplomat in Beijing. "The time frame of China's military options has moved forward."

In other words, if Chen Shui-bian takes his re-election as a mandate to push for independence for Taiwan, China has the military capability to viably threaten him with retribution, if not invasion. Indeed, China reminded Taiwan of its growing military clout on March 16 by conducting its broadest-ever naval exercise with a foreign force: a search-and-rescue operation with the French navy. "If China sees coercing Taiwan into agreements as the only way to prevent independence," says Thomas Christensen, professor of international relations at Princeton University, "it can increasingly back that up with military force."

China's longtime strategy to take the island has been to flatten parts of it using missiles and jet fighters, then ferry soldiers across the 185-km Taiwan Strait in fishing boats. But Taiwan's coastal defenses are formidable—they exceed those on the Normandy beaches stormed by the Allies on D-Day during World War II. So Beijing would now rather use its new brawn to drive a political bargain with Taiwan while deterring the U.S. Pacific Fleet from steaming to the rescue. To that end, China's improved navy can now extend its kill zone far into the East China Sea, threatening American ships. China's likeliest tactic would be to blockade Taiwan and press for concessions, then send enough body bags back to Washington to kill the U.S.'s appetite for fighting.

To achieve those goals, China has improved and expanded its navy's best offensive force—its submarine fleet. In 2002 it surprised the U.S. by ordering eight more Russian Kilo-class diesel subs, adding to four already delivered or in production. Many had expected the Kilos to replace China's own subs. Instead, China has stepped up production of its similar Song-class vessels, and given them the ability to shoot cruise missiles from under water for the first time.

These craft will soon receive Club cruise missiles from Russia, as well as "fire-and-forget" torpedoes that home in on the wake of targets, making them capable of sinking a destroyer with one shot. The focus on submarines exploits a key weakness in the U.S. Navy: antisubmarine warfare. The U.S. decommissioned its main antisub aircraft and now relies mainly on aging P-3 planes, which are usually used to monitor shorelines. "China's submarines are a potent threat to our navy, and we're not prepared to deal with them as we once were," says Lyle Goldstein, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island.

Of course, capability is one thing, intent is another. Beijing's political leaders know that a savage war with compatriots in Taiwan would wreck China's economy and likely cause their own downfall. China's army brass, however, might not recognize that threat. A recent book by three senior officers, Studies of Island Warfare, notes that "throughout history, peaceful reunification has come in special cases, while reunification through force of arms is the norm." China's military is preparing for Situation Normal.

	What Taiwan Wants [March 9, 2004] Taiwan's presidential election might prove to be a perilous watershed in its relationship with China. Can Beijing rein in the renegade? Cross-Strait Strains [March 9, 2004] Relations between Taiwan and China have been tense for more than half a century Trade Links [March 9, 2004] Dealing with China's economic embrace Strait Talking [February 23, 2004] In an exclusive interview, President Chen Shui-bian rejects the mainland's "one China" policy More Related Items | Search all issues of TIME Magazine