Unfinished Business — page 4

China
While Koizumi came to power as a domestic reformer, his greatest successes have so far been in foreign affairs. He boldly dispatched troops to Iraq (the first shipment of Japanese troops to a foreign land without the United Nations' blessing since World War II), and has maneuvered to be a major participant in the multinational engagement with North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. For all his aplomb on the geopolitical scene, however, Koizumi has allowed Japan's crucial relationship with China to languish. "While pursuing closer ties with the U.S. and attempting to normalize relations with North Korea, Koizumi has abandoned China," says Jun Iio, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. Since taking office, Koizumi has lived up to his promise to visit Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan's military war dead, at least once a year—meaning the Prime Minister, regularly like clockwork, offends China, whose citizens were brutalized by Japanese soldiers during World War II. Beijing has declared that Koizumi is unwelcome as long as the visits continue. So while trade between China and Japan has been booming, diplomatic relations are stalled.

Fixing that may mean making compromises about Yasukuni Shrine and more fully addressing other aspects of Japan's past war conduct, such as the Nanjing Massacre. Any admission of wrongdoing would be very unpopular with many of Koizumi's most conservative supporters, but political experts maintain that such compromises are the only way to get more fruitful dialogues with China rolling. "China is strengthening its presence throughout East Asia, but Japan and China have so many unresolved, complicated issues," says Terumasa Nakanishi, professor of international politics at Kyoto University.

From the day he burst onto the political scene, Koizumi was the outsider in his own party, relying on charm and public support to push his often maverick agenda. But as his popularity rating now hovers near an all-time low, his antagonistic relationship with many of his colleagues may have boxed him in on everything from structural reforms to international relations. While Koizumi's tenure has already been an unqualified, if modest, success on a number of fronts, he has an exceedingly tough climb ahead of him if he is to achieve all of his goals before leaving office. According to Glen Fukushima, ex-president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan, what was once a river of goodwill that allowed Koizumi to float, almost miraculously, above the politics-as-usual fray, has begun to evaporate. That has created a vicious circle that threatens to snuff out his attempts to salvage a lasting political legacy. "His failure to implement what he has said he would do," Fukushima says, "has led to a decline in his popularity—which makes it difficult for him to do what he needs to." Back in 2001, as Japan's Prime Minister came to power on a wave of confidence and public optimism, he declared himself "Junichiro Koizumi, the lionhearted." As he heads into a tight election and perhaps his toughest season of policy battles, Koizumi has an opportunity to prove whether he deserves that nickname not just because of his leonine mane, but because of the power of his convictions and the tenacity of his fight.

With reporting by Coco Masters, Toko Sekiguchi and Michiko Toyama/Tokyo

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