Choking on Growth — page 3

Yet China could surely do better. Although China and Japan are hardly the same, the fear that China will be unable to clean up without stalling economic progress is belied by the example of Japan, which also experienced rapid growth that initially caused serious pollution. In the early 1970s Tokyoites took to the streets in surgical masks to shield themselves from the smog. But today Tokyo has some of Asia's cleanest urban air, thanks in part to stringent efforts that brought down pollution even as the economy thrived. That's partly due to people like Yoshimitsu Ikuta, a 60-year-old inspection chief from Tokyo's Vehicle Pollution Policy Division. Ikuta is a "vehicle G-man," one of 75 officers who test the city's auto fleet each day for polluting diesel vehicles. (The name comes from a popular 1970s TV show about hard-boiled detectives.) Though Tokyo doesn't even have a severe problem with diesel pollution—less than 3% of the diesel vehicles inspected by the G-men over the past year were in noncompliance—Ikuta says he still gets calls from happy Tokyoites thanking him for keeping the air clear: "They say their laundry stays clean after it's been outside to dry. I like to hear people's response to our job."

For now, it's hard to imagine Beijing or Bombay ever having a work force of G-men. And it's this lack of administrative commitment—not to mention resources—that really foils efforts to control pollution in developing countries. When smog first struck Tokyo in the late 1960s, the city quickly began applying ever stricter emissions standards on cars and power plants—and, more importantly, enforced them. China has surprisingly tight environmental regulations, but the central government's best intentions are often not implemented on a local level. Countries like China and India have access to far more advanced environmental technology than Japan or the U.S. did when they began to attack air pollution, yet the institutional will is often lacking. "The question is enforcement," says Yang Fuqiang, the China representative of the U.S.-based Energy Foundation, a think tank that supports research on sustainable energy. "There's no capacity, and the budget is limited."

China's State Environmental Protection Agency, for instance, has just 300 full-time staff members. (Hong Kong's Environmental Protection Department has more than 1,600 covering a relatively tiny area.) China's local environmental agencies are notoriously weak, and the central government provides just 10% of their budget; the actual authority and most of the funding for pollution protection rests with local political officials who are more likely to be heralded for economic growth than environmental protection. Penalties are so low that it's not uncommon for polluting factories to keep paying fines rather than install expensive cleaning equipment—which helps explain why, by one estimate, just 5-6% of China's factories employ desulphurisation techniques. Even in Beijing, officials have been unable to enforce a two-year-old ban on the burning of coal in the downtown area. "There's no incentive or disincentive to change behavior," says Economy. "It's just easier, faster and cheaper to do it wrong. Then you pay the price later."

Yet even developing cities have proven that it's possible to dramatically improve air quality. For years, New Delhi vied with Mexico City for the title of the world's most polluted metropolis. Dr. Alok Pradhan, a pediatrician at the Kasturba Hospital in old Delhi, recalls that as recently as 2002 the air was so bad at rush hour that when he traveled on his motor scooter his eyes would burn and he'd feel ill. Eventually he had to change his commuting pattern, going home early or staying late to avoid the worst air. At work, he saw a stream of women and children with respiratory problems exacerbated by pollution.

Lately, however, Delhi's air has begun to clear. Plans had been in the works since 1998 to switch the capital's highly polluting diesel buses to cleaner compressed natural gas (CNG), but vehicle owners objected that the new fuel was too expensive. Finally in 2002 India's Supreme Court stepped in and began imposing fines on recalcitrant operators. Today most of Delhi's buses, taxis and auto-rickshaws run on CNG. The Supreme Court has also ordered a switch to unleaded petrol and the closure of polluting industries in the capital. The effects have been dramatic: from 1996 to 2003, sulfur-dioxide levels dropped 63% and respirable suspended particulates—bits of pollution small enough to be deeply inhaled—dropped 30%. Delhi has shown that strong government intervention—backed by environmental activism—can make a difference even in poorer cities. "The air quality is significantly better," says Pradhan, who no longer avoids the rush hour. The change is palpable, especially for those exposed to it every day. "There's still pollution in the air," says Alok Jaiswal, who sells watches on the street, "but my face doesn't turn black and my eyes don't itch."

That may sound like a small victory, but if Asia's developing countries can at least keep a grip on air pollution, even as they grow rapidly, it would be an enormous win. It should certainly help that countries like China and India can use the technology and experience of more developed nations to grow green. "The technology transfer is happening faster, and people are learning from each other faster," says World Bank environmental expert Jitendra Shah. The key will be whether developing countries can bring to bear the political will and economic resources to accomplish that transition. Air pollution is a globalized problem for a globalized world, one that will affect everyone from millionaires on Hong Kong's Peak to slum dwellers in Bombay. "No matter if you are rich or poor, you have to breathe the same air," says Lau of Friends of the Earth. "It's the concern of every citizen. You can see it; you can feel it." In the future, Asians will breathe easier together—or choke in the same way.

With reporting by Susan Jakes/Beijing and Shenzhen, Chaim Estulin/Hong Kong, Aravind Adiga/New Delhi and Coco Masters and Toko Sekiguchi/Tokyo

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