ROMEO GACAD—AFP / GETTY IMAGES

ON THE SPOT: Thaksin is winning popularity—and perhaps votes—by rushing aid to victims

Thailand's Leader
	Taking Charge
	By Michael Schuman | Sisaket Province

Posted Monday, January 10, 2005; 20:00 HKT
A catastrophe can be a crucible that makes or breaks national leaders. Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand's energetic Prime Minister, seems to be one of those officials who can make the best of a bad situation. As politicians elsewhere dithered and bickered in the tsunami's backwash, Thaksin played a key role in the swift mobilization of relief efforts while appearing to be everywhere at once succoring Thailand's victims. Thaksin was on the ground in Phuket just hours after the waves struck the resort island, and he toured the ravaged southern provinces twice more after his initial sortie. "With his quick response and management style—including sending in ministers and putting up centers to coordinate efforts and his handling of the media—I think he's won hearts and minds in the provinces," says Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Before the crisis, those hearts and minds were starting to doubt Thaksin—and precisely because of his management style. The telecommunications tycoon has been accused by his detractors of running Thailand like a domineering CEO since his election in 2001. His popularity began to slip noticeably in recent months, in part because of the government's heavy-handed suppression of an escalating Muslim insurgency in the country's south. The unrest reached a nadir on Oct. 25 when 85 Muslim demonstrators were killed during clashes with authorities, including 78 who died after being rounded up by military personnel and packed into trucks, where they suffocated. Shortly thereafter, Thaksin met with Thailand's much revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who "asked the government to consider being more lenient in dealing with the problem and to allow local people to participate in problem solving," Thaksin later revealed to reporters.

But in a fast-moving crisis, there's not a lot of time to build consensus. After the tsunami, the government and state banks quickly pledged $2.5 billion in relief funds and soft loans for damaged businesses, shoring up commercial confidence. When Thais were dazed and vulnerable, Thaksin bucked up the populace by turning down foreign financial aid, insisting that the country was strong enough to stand on its own. He ordered a probe to investigate why officials at the meteorological department failed to issue a tsunami warning after the earthquake, and summarily removed the department's chief. "I really want to know the truth," Thaksin told reporters.

Although the PM couldn't resist a little media grandstanding—at one point he offered to pay for reconstruction out of his own pocket—his critics have not dared to suggest that he is deliberately converting tragedy into political capital.

Yet there is little doubt that his popularity is getting a boost at an auspicious time: a parliamentary election looms on Feb. 6. Prior to the tsunami, political analysts were predicting members of the PM's Thai Rak Thai Party would lose some seats in parliament (while maintaining a majority). Thaksin's grace under fire will likely tip more voters his party's way. In one recent public-opinion survey conducted by Bangkok-based Abac Poll, 54% of the respondents said they have greater admiration for Thaksin now than they did a few weeks ago. Says Boonmee Kobut, a 43-year-old farmer in the eastern province of Sisaket: "He's been a very good Thai."

As time passes, however, voters may begin to ask more probing questions about the government's response—and Thailand's lack of preparedness. Along the impoverished Andaman coast, villagers complain that Thaksin is concentrating relief operations on foreign tourists and the ritzy hotels of Phuket. (A government spokesman denies the charges, saying aid went where it was most needed.) The investigation into why no alarm was sounded when the seismograph needles went haywire in Bangkok may ultimately raise doubts about Thai leaders—past and present—who failed to take the threat of a tsunami seriously. Perhaps anticipating attack, Thaksin appointed former meteorological officer Smith Dharmmasaroj as a vice minister in charge of developing an early-warning system for natural disasters. In the mid-1990s, before Thaksin was elected, Smith warned Thailand was at risk. He was ignored by officials. "Some may say we are putting up fences after the cows have gone," Thaksin said. "But there are still some cows left, and more will be coming, and we need to have a strong fence." And a leader decisive enough to get it built before the next Big One.

With reporting by Robert Horn/Bangkok

	In the Wake of Tragedy [Jan. 10, 2005] On the morning of Dec. 26, an earthquake off Sumatra was followedby a massive tsunami. Asia's suffering touched the world Tallying the Damage [Jan. 10, 2005] Asia's engine room wasn't swamped, but the waves wiped out countless jobs and rebuilding may take years Europe: Lost In The Waves [Jan. 10, 2005] The tsunami engulfed Europe too, as millions grieved for those caught in its maw and looked for ways to help After The Flood [Jan. 10, 2005] With disease looming, the world launches a massive relief effort. Will the aid reach the victims in time? How To Help [Jan. 10, 2005] A guide to donating and how to contact relief organizations on the ground More Related Items | Search all issues of TIME Magazine