Back in his New York office, Thaung Htun sees a glimmer of hope. The junta, he believes, is causing Asia enough harm and embarrassment that the region's governments are coming to see a reformed Burma as a necessity. "There is a policy shift in the region," he says. "If Burma is a failed state, it will create problems for its neighbors."

Some of Burma's friends do seem to be turning against the generals, even within clubby ASEAN. Members usually don't publicly criticize the junta, citing a policy of avoiding interference in others' internal affairs. But late last year, that stance changed dramatically. At a December summit, ASEAN's leaders issued a formal call for Burma to "expedite" democratic reform and release political prisoners. Though her name wasn't used, ASEAN was clearly referring to Suu Kyi. The association discussed the "need [BRACKET {for Burma}] to be more responsive to the wishes of the international community," said Malaysia's Foreign Minister, Syed Hamid Albar. The statements followed a tussle over ASEAN's 2006 chairmanship. Burma was scheduled to claim the post, but, faced with the prospect of a pariah state heading their organization, some ASEAN members, especially Singapore, pressed Burma to stand aside. Folding under the pressure, the junta decided to forgo the chairmanship because, an ASEAN statement said, it wants "to focus its attention on the ongoing national reconciliation and democratization process." The Bush Administration is also campaigning for the U.N. Security Council to take action on Burma, which led in December to the Council's first-ever briefing on the country.

Meanwhile, many foreign investors have also come to the conclusion that Burma's generals make miserable business partners. Citing everything from currency controls and irrational regulations to power shortages and bad roads, 40% of the South Korean textile firms that set up operations in the country have left in the past three years, and about a quarter of all Japanese companies have pulled out since the late 1990s. "The low cost of labor doesn't make up for the high cost of staying," says Koji Ida, a Burma expert at the Japan External Trade Organization in Tokyo. The ethical taint of any association with Burma has chased others away. Lingerie maker Triumph closed its factory in Burma in 2002 after a U.K. human-rights group launched a campaign under the slogan SUPPORT BREASTS, NOT DICTATORS with posters showing models wearing barbed-wire bras. American oil giant Unocal has received perhaps the worst bloody nose. In March last year, the company settled lawsuits by paying compensation to Burmese citizens who claimed they suffered abuses by Burma's military—including rape and forced labor—during the construction of a gas pipeline in which Unocal invested $340 million in 1993 (before sanctions were imposed). Unocal, recently acquired by Chevron, has never admitted to any crime, and Chevron says it's continuing to evaluate Unocal's assets but has yet to make any decision about the pipeline. Says Katie Redford, co-founder of EarthRights International, the Washington-based activist group that launched one of the suits: "Business is never going to be the same."

Burmese such as Ye Winn are hoping that's true. The 59-year-old trader set up shop in Ruili's Jiegao economic zone eight years ago to export Chinese-made engines into Burma. Early on, business was brisk, but sales have since fallen by 40%, and are still declining. His Burmese customers are becoming so poor, he says, that they can't even afford cheap Chinese goods anymore. The erratic Burmese government has slapped so many new restrictions on small traders like him that many have been forced to become smugglers, who slip motorcycle convoys laden with computer parts and Hollywood DVDs through the jungle between border posts. But Ye Winn says he's scared of getting into trouble, so he just sits in a sweltering storefront, smokes, and wonders what he can do to make money. "We are all hoping and waiting for the Burmese government to change," he says. "Without reform, things are only going to get worse." That's a fate that Burma's downtrodden people—and the rest of Asia—can ill afford.

—With reporting by Aravind Adiga/New Delhi, Robert Horn/Bangkok, Kim Yooseung/Seoul, Jake Lloyd-Smith/Singapore, Andrew Marshall/Rangoon, Toko Sekiguchi/Tokyo and Jodi Xu/Beijing

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	Caught in the Middle [Jul. 19, 2005] Hunted by Burma's military junta and unwanted by Thailand, the Shan are fighting for their lives Hunting the Junta [May. 23, 2005] A new report targets Burma's military rulers for crimes against its minority ethnic groups A Purge in Burma [Oct. 25, 2004] By sacking Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, the junta abandons even the pretense of a more liberal future Stone Age [Apr. 22, 2004] The military strongmen who rule Burma have made the country a global byword for backwardness and brutality More Related Items | Search all issues of TIME Magazine