APICHART WEERAWONG / AP

GONE FOR GOOD?: Thaksin bade a tearful farewell to his supporters, but many Thais believe he will be back

Thailand after Thaksin
	Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra steps down and defuses a political crisis. But the country's future remains uncertain
	By Bryan Walsh

Posted Monday, April 10, 2006; 20:00 HKT
Wichai Wongsawanragamee panned his Handycam across the stage, and then to the crowd of 15,000 in Bangkok's Sanam Luang park, where the enraged protests against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that had run for weeks were replaced, last Friday, by a jubilation difficult to imagine a week before. The national election held on April 2 had left the country at an impasse, and with neither side seemingly ready to back down, fears grew that the deadlock would be broken by bloodshed in the streets. Yet two days after the election, Thaksin announced that he would step aside, and appealed for an end to the political crisis that had transfixed the nation. That crisis is far from over, but there is a sense that Thailand has passed the worst. "Today is a good feeling for me," says Wichai, an incense trader who brought his six-year-old daughter to Friday's rally. "It's a victory for the people."

"Thailand's silk revolution." That's how Michael Vatikiotis, a visiting research fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, neatly put it in a column last week in the International Herald Tribune. In the space of just a handful of days, the country went from angry street protests, to a spoiled election, to the shocking exit of the polarizing figure who has defined Thai politics for over five years—all without violence or noticeable damage to its humming economy. It might hardly seem democratic that a Prime Minister who managed to capture the majority of votes in an election should be pushed out of power by a vocal minority, but the reality is that Thais faced a seemingly insoluble political dilemma and managed to find a graceful way out—for now. "We have no time to quarrel," said a somber Thaksin during his televised address on April 4 when he announced he was stepping down. "I want to see Thai people unite."

Putting Thailand together again, however, won't be easy. The snap parliamentary election that Thaksin had held two days earlier was a gamble both for him and the political parties and groups allied against him. Thaksin, who called the election three years early, hoped that a conclusive win for his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party would be enough to prove that most of the country was still behind him. The main opposition parties—the Democrats, Chart Thai and Mahachon—decided to boycott the campaign, urging Thais to vote no on their ballots in an effort to deny Thaksin legitimacy at the polls. In the end, Thaksin won—and then lost. Though TRT candidates earned 51% of the total, some 10 million Thais voted no—leaving the new Parliament short by 38 seats in areas where TRT candidates couldn't muster the 20% of the vote needed by law to win uncontested seats, and one seat where the only candidate running was disqualified. Thaksin initially claimed victory in the aftermath of the election, and the opposition alliance promised renewed protests. Nothing, it seemed, had changed—until Thaksin emerged late on April 4 from a meeting with King Bhumibol Adulyadej and announced that he had decided to step aside, at least partially for the sake of the King's 60th anniversary celebrations in June. Says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a politics professor at Chulalongkorn University. "We need to put on the best of Thailand for the celebrations."

A CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLOCK
Yet the situation is anything but settled. The Election Commission is rerunning the 39 remaining parliamentary races on April 23, but even with Thaksin gone for now, the main opposition Democrat Party won't field candidates. "We don't think these elections will give the country what it needs," says Korn Chatikavanij, deputy secretary-general of the Democrats. "We don't want to be a part of it."

Another spoiled election would leave the new Parliament short of the 500 M.P.s it needs by law to form a government—which would create a constitutional crisis over the legality of convening Parliament without a full quota. One solution might be a royally appointed interim government, which protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul has been urging for several months. Another possibility is an independent commission that could propose changes to the constitution, which would be subject to public consultation and then parliamentary approval—a process TRT believes could take 12 to 15 months, after which a fresh election would be held. But just the formation of such a commission could be a political headache. The opposition says that supposedly independent agencies, like the Election Commission, are biased toward Thaksin; a constitutional commission, the opposition believes, would therefore have to be truly independent. In any case, under the current rules any constitutional changes would have to go through a Parliament that is locked up by TRT, a fact anti-Thaksin forces are unlikely to accept. "They don't want a continuation of the Thaksin system," says Suchit Boonbongkarn, a former Constitutional Court judge.

Continued...

	Thaksin's Surprising Exit [Apr. 4, 2006] After snap election backfires, Thailand's controversial prime minister steps aside Get Ready to Do It Again [Apr. 3, 2006] Boycotts, disqualifications and constitutional contortions following Sunday's vote could leave Thailand stuck in electoral gridlock. Welcome to the land of the nonstop election Why Thaksin's Troubles Won't Go Away [Apr. 1, 2006] Textile factories throughout Asia face extinction as a long-standing global trade pact is set to expire Brother, Where Art Thou? [Mar. 20, 2006] Thailand and Italy's leaders in crisis could have been separated at birth Should Thaksin Stay? [Mar. 13, 2006] His critics demand that he quit. But Thailand's Thaksin Shinawatra vows to seek a fresh electoral mandate. TIME asks a range of observers whether he is still the right man to lead his nation Taking Heat [Feb. 12, 2006] Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra is a focus of protests, but many still love him. Can he ride out the storm? More Related Items | Search all issues of TIME Magazine