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| JASON REEDÑREUTERS |
| DIPLOMACY AMONG FRIENDS: Bush and Koizumi at last year's APEC meeting in Korea |
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| After Koizumi |
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The Prime Minister has led his country as few of his predecessors. But how well established are the reforms of the Koizumi era? |
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By Jim Frederick |
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Posted Monday, June 26, 2006; 20:00 HKT
At a recent reception at his resi-dence to welcome a conference of global business executives, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi looked a man very much at ease. Confident, charismatic, sporting an open collar and no jacket, Koizumi said that he was feeling relaxed; this was the last day he had to endure a policy grilling on the floor of parliament before it adjourned for the summer. "I think no Prime Minister in the world has to field as many questions as the Japanese Prime Minister," he said with a laugh. But since Koizumi is scheduled to step down from his post when his term as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) expires in September, this was, in fact, likely to be the last time he'd ever have to endure such a session. As he worked the cocktail party with aplomb, the well-known audiophile said, with obvious glee, that he was looking forward to listening to lots of classical music and Elvis Presley while catching up with the World Cup.
To a large degree, the Koizumi era is already over. With the Diet in recess, there are no bills left to pass, no more policy debates. Koizumi is traveling to the U.S. this week, but few pretend this is a particularly work-intensive trip including, as it does, a tourist stop at Graceland after what's expected to be a hero's welcome in Washington. Calling the trip "a victory lap," one Koizumi aide told TIME that the Prime Minister's visit was purposely designed to be a low-key, personal farewell to his friend President George W. Bush at the end of five years of uncommonly good relations.
Victory lap or no, its not surprising that Koizumi should feel satisfied as he coasts into semiretirement (though stepping down as Japan's leader, he plans to retain his parliament seat). Few Prime Ministers have so thoroughly dominated Japanese politics and defined their era. For better and worse, Koizumi's impact on Japan's domestic politics, international relations and its economic environment will be felt for years to come. Before he unexpectedly took office in 2001, Japan had churned through 10 Prime Ministers in 12 years. Its economy was stagnating, its foreign policy aimless. Since then, however, Koizumi has ruled with a remarkably consistent vision that has buoyed his popularity at home and boosted Japan's profile abroad. He has presided over an economic revival, and spearheaded the most ambitious foreign-affairs agenda of Japan's postwar era, including his dispatch of 600 troops to southern Iraq in 2004—the first time a modern Prime Minister had sent Japanese soldiers abroad without a U.N. sanction, and an epochal moment for Japan. Last week, US ambassador Thomas Schieffer told a group of American journalists: "I don't think there is any question that the Japan of today is different from the Japan of five years ago. Leaders make a difference, and the proof of that is Koizumi. Under Koizumi, there was a fundamental change." Now Japan has turned its attention to the future. How many of the changes Koizumi wrought will prove lasting? Who will succeed him? Will they attempt to continue his vision or forge a different path? Amid such uncertainty, only one thing is clear: Koizumi will be a tough act to follow.
THE POLITICAL SCENE
Koizumi changed the way that Japanese politics was played. When he first came to power, with grand plans and tough talk about structural reform, he was a new and strange kind of Japanese politician. He spoke directly to the people, relying more on his image, ideas and popular support than on currying favor with party insiders. That gave him the independence that enabled him to boast he would pursue his structural-reform agenda "without sanctuary," even if it meant destroying his own LDP, which had long been wedded to the pork-barrel politics he was assailing. In some ways, the LDP's old-boys network was more resilient than expected, making Koizumi's reform record decidedly mixed. But he managed to hold on to power (he will retire as the third-longest-serving Premier of the postwar era) by never losing his popular support.
Superficially, his impact on politics was enormous. After Koizumi's initial success, the LDP and its rival, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), started hiring American public-relations firms, image consultants and campaign managers. They pushed younger, better-looking candidates to the forefront, reminding them that dandruff and ill-fitting suits turned voters off. But for all the image burnishing, few genuinely charismatic leaders have emerged in Koizumi's wake. "No one there now can bring the razzle dazzle the way he could," says Jeff Kingston, a professor of history at Temple University's Tokyo campus. "While campaign styles have changed for good, without his independence, you'll probably see the factions make a small comeback." Koizumi's departure will provide the DPJ its best chance yet to become a credible opposition party. Though pundits have long been predicting the dawn of true, two-party politics in Japan, the DPJ has been consistently stymied by both its own disorganization and voters' overwhelming endorsement of Koizumi. Now one of those obstacles is out of the way.
Continued...
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