The Gathering Storm
	Many Asians are voicing strong opposition to another conflict in Iraq. This time, in a post-9/11 world, the stakes are higher
	By Simon Elegant | Kuala Lumpur

	JOEL NITO/AFP Muslim women hold burning placards of U.S. President George W. Bush during a protest in Manila

Kuala Lumpur bus driver Abdul Halim Noor is taking his lunch break sitting under a stunted tree outside the city's chaotic central bus station. Oblivious to the crowds of commuters swirling around him and the humidity that has sweat dripping down his face and running into his sparse beard, Abdul Halim is fulminating against what now seems inevitable—a U.S. invasion of Iraq. "All Muslims feel the humiliation suffered by Iraq," he says. "The U.N. now is nothing more than a lackey of the U.S. and the Western powers. We should boycott all U.S.-made goods."

That will be difficult for the 46-year-old driver to do. His three teenage children, he says, "only want Levi jeans, no other kind." There's nothing unusual about a difference of views between the generations. But to Abdul Halim, his children's passion for things American has taken on a sinister air in light of the looming conflict in Iraq. His two daughters and one son love to hang out at McDonald's, one of whose outlets in Indonesia was bombed last month by militant Muslims. So far there have been no such attacks in Malaysia. But extremists have attacked churches, Hindu temples and a brewery, and Abdul Halim is worried that U.S. symbols could become soft targets if an assault on Iraq begins—thereby endangering his children. "I tell them about Israel and Palestine, but they just nod their heads," he says. "They only like fast food and watching MTV."

As the showdown between Washington and Baghdad draws nearer, everyone from ordinary people like Abdul Halim to Asia's leaders is counting the cost of a possible new conflict in Iraq. With the 1991 Gulf War, Asia's concern was mainly one-dimensional: how the conflict would affect the region's economies. That is a worry once again, especially given the recession afflicting many Asian nations—and, once again, the prognosis is that a short war will be tolerable, a long one potentially disastrous (see story).

But this time around, there are many additional elements to agonize over. In a post-9/11 world, terrorists will welcome the war as an excuse to strike back at U.S. and Western interests, including those in Asia. Saddam Hussein will paint any attack on his country as a conflict pitting Islam against the U.S. and the West, and many Muslims in Asia will be among his believers. "A war will radicalize Muslims, even moderates," says Eliseo Mercado, head of an independent monitoring group in the Philippines' Muslim-majority southern province of Mindanao, where over the past decade Islamic militancy has gained ground among Muslim separatists. The war will also fuel anti-American sentiments already ignited in countries such as South Korea by what many locals regard as Washington's overly stern attitude toward North Korea and the grating presence of its military. For governments, it will be harder to back the U.S. in the war on terror without being seen as puppets of the superpower. "We've got enough problems right now," says Ooi Giok Ling of Singapore's Institute of Policy Studies. "The last thing any of us wants is a war."

Complicating matters is the fact that the justification for bombing Iraq is not as clear-cut as it was in 1991. Then, the mission was to liberate Kuwait, which had been brutally invaded by Iraq five months earlier. Now, the most commonly stated objective is to teach Saddam a lesson for producing weapons of mass destruction. But U.N. inspectors have yet to find any evidence of them, even if they do indeed exist in Iraq. As a result, many are skeptical about Washington's intent, and think it has more to do with securing oil reserves than with making the world a safer place for everyone. "Most Muslims did not oppose the Afghanistan campaign," says Molvi Abbas Ansari, a senior official of the chief Kashmiri separatist group, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference. "But contrary to Afghanistan, the U.S. has no reason to attack Iraq." If it does, Ansari ominously observes that "there will be a violent reaction all over the Islamic world."

That is precisely what Asian countries with sizable Muslim populations fear. The greatest immediate concern is that the war could spark a string of bombings and other attacks by Islamic militants. "An invasion will generate sustained support and recruits to existing Islamic militant groups and will spawn new ones," says Rohan Gunaratna, author of a recently published book on al-Qaeda. "Worst of all, those groups will come under tremendous pressure from their members and constituents to take some kind of retaliatory action."

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