The Gathering Storm — page 2

The scope of the threat posed by groups such as Jemaah Islamiah (JI)—the network of militants widely blamed for last October's Bali bombings that killed 191 people—was grimly underlined last week by the release in Singapore of a lengthy government study of Islamic militancy in the city-state and the surrounding region. Detailing plans by Singapore-based JI operatives to undertake an ambitious series of bombings against diplomatic, governmental, military and educational sites, most of them belonging to the U.S. and its allies, the report noted that JI and its affiliates had developed to the point that even should the U.S. campaign to destroy al-Qaeda succeed, Southeast Asia would continue to face a "grave threat ... for a long time to come."

It's true that a string of arrests around the region in the past year have dealt a serious blow to JI's operational capacity. Singapore itself has arrested 31 alleged members of the network, while suspected militants continue to be picked up in neighboring Malaysia and the Philippines. Even Indonesia, once considered the weak link in Southeast Asia's antiterror chain, has arrested 20 men suspected of planning and carrying out the bombings in Bali and is expected to put them on trial next month. But such successes have not necessarily crippled JI's ability to act, analysts and diplomats warn, particularly if its members are spurred by a fresh wave of anti-American sentiment generated by the war on Iraq.

And there will be no shortage of volunteers. Analysts estimate that there are as many as 500 active JI members in Southeast Asia, with more recruits joining their ranks each month. Philippine intelligence sources, for example, say that after al-Qaeda-linked training facilities near the town of Poso in Indonesia's Central Sulawesi province were disrupted in late 2001, militants upped and moved to new camps in Mindanao in the southern Philippines.

There are other grim scenarios. The rumbling street protests in Jakarta over recent fuel- and electricity-price hikes could be swollen by anger at an attack on Iraq, some Indonesians warn, threatening the shaky government of President Megawati Sukarnoputri. In 1998, similar demonstrations about economic hardship led eventually to the fall of longtime Indonesian strongman Suharto. A U.S. attack also might spark protests that could be infiltrated by militants. "If there is rioting, then the radical groups could join in for their own purposes," says Jusuf Wanandi, who heads the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta. "Then things could get very messy."

But while Megawati has reason to be concerned, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf tells Time that the prospect of a U.S. attack on Iraq is his "main concern these days." Since he threw in his lot with Washington in the wake of 9/11, Musharraf's fate has been at the mercy of Washington's whims. The self-appointed President is already deeply unpopular with Pakistanis for his dubious rewriting of the constitution that tightened his grip on power. More ominously, he is also losing support among his own armed services, in good measure because of his policy of allowing American fbi and cia agents to stalk suspected al-Qaeda terrorists around the country—such as last week's firefight in downtown Karachi during which Pakistani security forces backed by fbi agents arrested two suspected al-Qaeda operatives. A senior Pakistani official even speculates that with the U.S. distracted by its campaign in Iraq, anti-Musharraf elements within the armed forces might seize the moment to stage a coup against the President.

Musharraf has tried to distance himself from supporting a possible American attack on Iraq, stating publicly that Washington should solve its dispute with Baghdad peacefully through the U.N. But such efforts do little to convince ordinary Pakistanis. Former Pakistani intelligence chief Hamid Gul says that in his country's bustling bazaars, the "perception exists that Iraq might be the front line for the Muslim world against the United States, and that after Iraq, the United States might turn its gaze to Iran and then Pakistan."

Even among non-Muslims in Asia, skepticism about U.S. motives in attacking Iraq and anger at what appears to be Washington's arrogance is palpable. "What antiterrorism?" asks Beijing-based lawyer Xu Bing, who practiced in Chicago for four years. "All excuses. Let's be frank: it's all for oil's sake. No wonder so many people hate the U.S." Before a single shot has been fired, the U.S. dispute with Iraq seems to have claimed its first victim: America's high standing in Asia.

—With reporting by K. Baradan/Kuala Lumpur, Anthony Davis and Nelly Sindayen/Manila, Syed Talat Hussain and Tim McGirk/Islamabad, Donald Macintyre/Seoul, Mike Meyer/Beijing, Alex Perry/New Delhi, Jason Tedjasukmana/Jakarta, Michiko Toyama/Tokyo, Izhar Wani/Srinagar and Douglas Wong/Singapore

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