FEBRUARY 14, 2000 VOL. 155 NO. 6

Bush likes to say that kind of thing. "I don't really care what the polls say; I'm not a poll-driven politician," he said later the same day. "If people don't agree, that's all right. We'll go fishin' in Texas." But what once sounded charmingly normal--I can take this or leave this--was starting to sound arrogant. When he appeared Saturday afternoon in Milford with brothers and sister and parents in tow, at an event in, of all perfect places, an indoor tennis club, wearing a Texas Rangers jacket with an imperial gold star on the chest like the kind Presidents wear on Air Force One, it had all the trappings of a coronation.

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I feel something in the air," he said, not taking the time to identify exactly what. In maybe two minutes of halting remarks, his parents referred to "W" three times as their "boy"--"This boy, this son of ours, is not going to let you down," said the father. There was a hug, a tear in the son's eye, but "W" said little besides "Work hard; call your friends." Then he exited stage left. Many were turned away, and others who made it in were stunned by the brevity and vacancy of the whole thing. "That was really bad," said a longtime Bush family aide, leaving the event.

So, suddenly, the waltz to the nomination had become a rumble, not with an unelectable nuisance like Steve Forbes but with an unpredictable and utterly viable Republican named John McCain. In public, Bush remained gracious, and sanguine. "I understand this is a long process," he said as he flew south from the snows. "I've seen presidential campaigns; I've seen the good moments of them, and I've seen the bad moments. And Senator McCain is having a good moment." And now it was up to Bush to make sure McCain had a few bad ones.

"He's the Washington, D.C., person. I've got to do a better job of defining that," mused Bush, trying to figure out where he went wrong. "He's the man who's the head of the committees. He's the person that interests come and, ya know, make their claim in his committees. So there's a lot of things I need to do to make it clear to people there are differences." But even in the valley of the shadow of death, Bush was talking strategy, not message. He was telling the world that he needed to define his opponent and to show the contrast. So much for moving into substance and staying optimistic. It was reminiscent of his father declaring in New Hampshire in 1992, "Message: I care."

It didn't help that all around him his army was in a panic. The party faithful lost their nerve in reliable degree and predictable order. Breathing most heavily were the money guys, the ones with a herd mentality and the deepest, longest commitment to Bush. They had bought Bush shares early, like a hot Internet IPO. They'd bet heavily on a brand name, even though there was no guarantee of revenues or income; they had imagined years of dividends in the form of jobs, favors and paybacks and now were looking at an ugly balance sheet.

The nervous Cassandras of the House fell in line behind them, for many had signed up with Bush right behind their benefactors. The Hill guys, all facing election this fall, had been watching Bush, had noticed his promise but had not missed the inexperience either. At a retreat last week of about 150 House Republicans in snowy Farmington, Pa., a bunch of Bush partisans were sitting around at breakfast, choking on the poll numbers out of South Carolina showing McCain dead even with Bush after running 20 points behind a week ago. "That bump," gulped one retreater, "is just so big." So big, in fact, that they agreed that someone had to put in a call to Camp McCain, put out a feeler, before the line got too long and the bandwagon grew too full. So they nominated one member to reach out to the McCain HQ. Sure enough, the call was made right after breakfast. "If we're going to keep control of the House," one of them said later, "maybe the McCain message has the best chance."

For their part, the Republican Governors were generally holding fast for Bush. It helps that they have nowhere else to go; but they had been bracing for this anyway. For several weeks top Republicans, including Michigan's John Engler, had been quietly complaining that the Bush campaign has been too secretive, too insular, too resistant to taking outside advice. Bush himself had expressed impatience with the way the Iron Triangle of Hughes, Rove and campaign manager Joe Allbaugh had limited access of ideas and people but never took any step to open things up. "This is a colossal f___up," said a Bush adviser. Said another: "By any measure, the campaign failed." "It's gone from 1 in 10 to 2 in 10," said a longtime pioneer. "But if McCain wins South Carolina, anything can happen."

Which is why Bush's top aides and his South Carolina allies were huddled in the Greenville Grand Hyatt by Wednesday afternoon, trying to figure out how to cut McCain fast and deep. Forget what they'd said about winning respect as well as votes; the loss up North was so bad that no one thought Bush could win South Carolina on the strength of his positive message alone. As a participant put it later, this was the moment the Bush campaign "decided to take the gloves off."

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