MARCH 6, 2000 VOL. 155 NO. 9

This Time He's Serious
With a new party and a pitch for clean government, a Thai tycoon is trying to succeed in politics, finally
By ROBERT HORN Bangkok

Peter Charlesworth/Saba for TIME

Mobile phone tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra thinks he can solve the problems of rural Thailand. "No country can sustain its economy while its farmers remain poor," says Thaksin. Thai growers, he says, need infrastructure, education and dry storage so harvests don't spoil. Oh, and computers. According to Thaksin, if the country's 7,000 subdistricts each had websites, farmers would know the true output of crops and, therefore, what prices should be. "Now the price is manipulated by middlemen," he says, noting that even the government doesn't have accurate information. "It's very analog," he says. "Why don't we digitize?"

It's a novel message. And,with national elections due to be held before the end of the year, Thaksin, 51, has emerged as the only serious challenger to Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai. "Everyone who is dissatisfied with Chuan is flocking to him," says Sopon Ongkara, a columnist for Bangkok's The Nation newspaper. With a new party named Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) and a campaign slogan of "New Thinking, New Ways," Thaksin is talking clean government and pledging to use the skills that earned him a $2.8 billion fortune "to give every single person the potential to create more wealth."

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Not everyone is buying the message. Many Thais worry that Thaksin's backers are among the most unsavory elements in Thai politics. "Thaksin is not a real alternative," says Kevin Hewison, Asian Societies professor at the University of New England in Australia. "He'll just end up bringing in the same crew that ran the country in 1997 when the economy collapsed." Moreover, this isn't the first time Thaksin has been touted as a savior. A former police officer, he parlayed a 1987 bank loan into a conglomerate selling computers, pagers, mobile phones and cable television. As the most successful of a new generation of entrepreneurs, "he was a hero to many," says Duncan McCargo, an expert in Thai politics at Leeds University. Critics say Thaksin owes his business success to political and bureaucratic connections as well as government concessions. Nonetheless, when he ran for parliament in 1995, newspapers touted "Thaksin Fever." The tycoon promised to use his high-tech know-how to solve Bangkok's traffic problem in six months or resign.

He didn't solve the problem, and he didn't resign. He did, however, wreck the country's only reform-minded political party in the process, leading his Palang Dharma Party into a coalition government widely considered corrupt. After the Asian economic crisis erupted in 1997, then Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh appointed Thaksin as his deputy, hoping he could stop the meltdown. He couldn't, and Chavalit resigned, which meant Thaksin was out of a job. "Thaksin has been singularly unsuccessful as a politician," says Hewison.

So why do so many Thais look to him as an alternative to Chuan? The answer may lie with the Prime Minister's perceived limitations. Chuan has won international plaudits for pulling the country out of the depths of economic crisis, but at home the sober ex-lawyer comes across as insensitive to farmers and the poor. Although Chuan has a reputation for honesty, critics accuse him of protecting corrupt ministers.

Thaksin says he is better equipped to clean up the government. "I am a very strong advocate of political reform," he insists. When he founded Thai Rak Thai in July 1998, he vowed to accept only clean politicians. Yet most Thai parties are still amalgams of factions, or patronage cults revolving around a boss or a godfather. While Chuan's Democrats have a core of capable economic ministers, Sopon believes "Thaksin can't attract respectable people to his party," because many doubt his resolve. So instead he has signed up figures such as Sanoh Thienthong, a faction leader regarded as a typical old-guard politician.

Thaksin insists he can handle the old-style bosses. "This is the new Thai politics. I will definitely put the interests of the people first," he says. Thailand, however, may not be able to endure another self-proclaimed reformer leading a corrupt coalition government. "Lack of good governance contributed to the Asian economic crisis," McCargo says. "The outside world will be relieved if Thailand can reform its politics. Otherwise it won't be the kind of place where people will want to put their money." Judging from the alliances he's making, investors could decide a Thaksin-led government is very analog indeed.

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