JANUARY 8, 2001 VOL. 157 NO. 1

Peter Charlesworth/Saba for TIME. Thaksin Shinawatra answers reporters questions after a campaign rally in Bangkok.

Bullets & Ballots
Election season can be a dangerous, dark time in Thailand. This year, a powerful anti-graft commission is challenging politics as usual
By ROBERT HORN Buriram

ALSO
Nowhere to Hide
The watchdogs try to clean things up

Lawyers. guns. money. It must be campaign season again in Buriram. The province, one of Thailand's poorest, routinely becomes its most violent at election time. Panawat Liangpongpan, a Democrat candidate for parliament, has the scars to prove it. As he readies himself for a day's campaigning, he tucks a 9-mm Walther semiautomatic pistol into his back pocket, straps on a Kevlar bulletproof vest and, leaving nothing to chance, rubs his hands over the three Buddhist amulets hanging from his neck. Panawat is not paranoid, just experienced: in December of '99, he took four bullets in his back. Asked why he was shot, Panawat replies: "Politics." When the gunman was captured, he told police he had been hired by Thaweesak Chidchob, a member of a prominent family of well-connected businessmen and politicians. He hasn't been apprehended.

Thais have become cynically accustomed to such brazen displays of gangster politics. Electoral power in Thailand has long emanated from the barrels of guns and the wallets of well-heeled businessmen, rather than from genuine debate over issues and the national interest. An estimated $1.2 billion was spent—much of it on vote buying—during the previous national election in 1996: more than what was spent on that year's U.S. presidential campaign. Provincial businessmen and godfathers tend to buy their way into parliament where they recoup their investments through graft. While the politicians loot government programs and private banks, the gulf between rich and poor has become the widest in Asia. "They rob our treasury. They rob our land," says General Saiyud Kerdphol, chairman of PollWatch, an independent election-monitoring group. "They rob everything, and they never get caught."

ALSO IN TIME COVER: Lowdown on the Slowdown America braces for a downturn as policymakers try to smooth the road ahead • Fallout: If the U.S. sneezes, does Asia have to catch a cold? • Viewpoint: America's woes spell opportunity for Asia THAILAND: Rules of Engagement The latest election pageant has exposed a familiar underbelly of guns, gangsters and political deception • Nowhere to Hide: The watchdogs try to clean things up CAMBODIA: The Taxman Cometh An American citizen leads a violent effort to topple Phnom Penh's government, sparking a moral dilemma for the U.S. CHINA: Rockabye Baby In far-western Yunnan province, women are making ends meet by producing infants for sale to wealthier Chinese JAPAN: Youth Gone Wild A disturbing film is prompting citizens—and opportunistic politicians—to reopen the debate on violent kids TRAVEL WATCH Killing Time: A Guide to Asia's Airports

Many Thais hoped that this year's parliamentary election would be different, thanks in part to the candidacy of Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire telecom tycoon who proclaimed himself the prophet of clean politics. A former Deputy Prime Minister, Thaksin said he could slice through this morass of corruption and pledged, if elected, to bring honesty and transparency to the government. In a nation wounded economically, he also vowed to use his business savvy to restore prosperity. Voters liked the message. And polls indicate that Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai (Thai Love Thai) party are racing toward a landslide win in this week's national election that would deal a crushing defeat for Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai and his Democrat-led government. Although Chuan and company have lifted Thailand from the low point of its economic crisis, many Thais still face tough times and regard the Democrats as arrogant and insensitive to the poor. Chuan has also lost support for failing to punish corrupt members of his own government.

But Thaksin himself is now damaged goods, a victim of the very anticorruption movement he has supported. Last week, Thailand's National Counter Corruption Commission, empowered by a new reform constitution to investigate politicians, resoundingly smacked down politics as usual by charging Thaksin with deliberately submitting a false declaration of assets in 1997 when he was No. 2 in the government. The tycoon, the commission said, stashed millions of dollars in stocks under the names of his maid, driver and security guard to conceal ownership of 17 companies, avoid paying taxes and manipulate share prices. The penalty is a five-year ban from politics. Choking back tears, Thaksin insisted: "I will be the next Prime Minister." He has vowed to continue to run for office while appealing to the Constitutional Court, dismissing calls to spare the country the likely spectacle of a Prime Minister on trial. His odds aren't great—to date, the court has upheld every one of the commission's findings. (His case may be bolstered, how-ever, by last week's resignation of Preeya Kasemsant na Ayutthaya, the counter corruption commissioner who had recommended that Thaksin be indicted. Preeya admitted to incorrectly declaring her own assets.)

The commission is also investigating several ministers in Chuan's government. Even the Prime Minister was probed for possibly concealing parts of his stock portfolio, though he was cleared. Another new watchdog body, the Election Commission, is flexing its muscles: it has already disqualified three parliamentary candidates for vote buying and will surely ban scores more for offenses like doling out cash and other goodies for votes; spending over the campaign limit; and using violence or intimidation to sway voters. "There has never been anything like this," says former Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun, who helped draft a 1997 constitution that created the two institutions. "It's a completely new chapter in our history."

Not everyone likes the changes—particularly the privileged beneficiaries of the old system who argue that reforms will bring chaos. Many businessmen are calling for a "timeout" for democracy, while some politicians warn that the watchdog bodies are dangerously overreaching. Korn Dabbaransi, leader of the Chart Pattana Party, contends that if the Election Commission issues so many "red cards," or disqualifications, that the overall outcome is altered, it could spark a coup d'état. It's not an idle fear: in late November, army commander in chief General Surayud Chulanont revealed that some officers were indeed advocating a power grab to forestall what they see as a tainted election that will only produce another corrupt and ineffective government. Surayud should know. As the most reform-minded army chief Thailand has had, the general has launched his own offensive to weed out corrupt, criminal and coup-plotting soldiers. He now surrounds himself around the clock with a detail of commandos to thwart assassination attempts.

Despite efforts to clean up the system, the election has been plagued with the sort of bullets and baht politics that have long been synonymous with Thai elections. Last year, 43 politicians, canvassers and bureaucrats were shot dead nationwide. In violence-wracked Buriram, near the Cambodian border, campaign workers and monitors have been abducted, and sales of bullets have more than doubled since campaigning began. Niran Kultanan, president of the Buriram chapter of PollWatch, now varies his routine each day so that any hitmen would have a harder time tracking him down. "The violence will get worse as voting day draws near," he predicts.

In some areas, to be sure, reform is making a difference. In Nakhom Phanom, near the Laos frontier, border patrol police acting on a tipoff last month pulled over a campaign convoy belonging to former Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's New Aspiration Party. In the glove compartment of a pickup truck they found 100,000 baht (about $2,300) in 500-baht notes stuffed inside envelopes on each of which was written the name of a local candidate. Chavalit, who still wields tremendous influence over the police and military, was furious when the arresting officer refused to take his phone call. (He contended that the money wasn't for buying votes but to pay for vehicle rentals used in his campaign.) And the scandals have hit more than just old-guard par-ties like Chavalit's. A Democrat has been red-carded, while an Australian Broadcasting Corp. TV crew caught Thaksin's party handing out cash. "You can change the laws, but changing the political culture will take a lot longer," says former Prime Minister Anand.

Still, this week's election offers some hope that Thailand is becoming more and more of a legitimate parliamentary democracy. Politicians who buy elections and abuse power to plunder the nation now face a harsh legal reckoning. "For the first time, our politicians are afraid," says Dr. Prawase Wasi, a well-known social activist who led the 1997 campaign for the constitution to establish the watchdog bodies and provide for recourse against corrupt officials. "When it comes to corruption, there is finally real hope," says economist Ammar Siamwalla. "The battle has been joined." It's a battle that's far from over, but the reformers are shaking things up.

They Don't Beat People Up—Their Bodyguards Do

There are many honest and honorable men and women among the 500 lawmakers in Thailand's House of Representatives. But the chamber also has its share of shady characters that reformers would like to see purged. Here are some of the more notorious, though each denies any wrongdoing Snoh Thienthong Thai Rak Thai Known as "a god-father," Snoh is under investigation for allegedly abusing his power when he was head of the Land Department in grabbing a large plot from a Buddhist temple. He turned it into a golf course, which he later sold to Thaksin Shinawatra. In November it was the site of Tiger Woods' victory in the Johnnie Walker Classic Wanchalerm and Arthan Yubamroong New Aspiration Party Thrown off the police force for allegedly forging documents exempting them from military service, Arthan (shown) and his brother Wanchalerm, sons of former Justice Minister Chalerm Yubamroong, are infamous around Bangkok for their bodyguards beating up patrons while clubbing in the capital's nightspots Vatana and Poonphol Asavahame Rassadorn Party Deputy Interior Minister Vatana (shown) has been denied a visa by the United States because he is suspected of either being a drug trafficker or associating with them. His son Poonphol is still awaiting trial for allegedly running down a policeman who tried to give him a traffic ticket Suthep Thaugsuban Democrat Party The Minister of Transport and Communications was implicated in a scheme in which wealthy cronies grab-bed land meant for the poor. The scandal caused the collapse of Chuan's first government in 1995. He set up a farmers cooperative whose managers placed stocks in Chuan's name, sparking an investigation of the Prime Minister. Chuan was cleared Newin Chidchob Chart Tha The Deputy Finance Minister and leader of the barons of Buriram was allegedly part of a group of politicians, businessmen and bank executives whose credit scheme contributed to the $3 billion collapse of the Bangkok Bank of Commerce Surakiart Sathiarathai Thai Rak Thai As Finance Minister in 1995-96, he fired the corruption-fighting head of the Securities and Exchange Commission and failed to take action against those members of his then political party Chart Thai who were allegedly involved in the loan scandal that precipated the collapse of the Bangkok Bank of Commerce

Write to TIME at mail@web.timeasia.com