JANUARY 22, 2001 VOL. 157 NO. 3

Where's Our Million?
Thailand's Prime Minister-elect made fantastic campaign promises—but can he really deliver?
By ROBERT HORN Bangkok

Sakchai Lalit/AP. Billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, right, appears set to become Thailand's new Prime Minister. But will he get to keep his job?

Dr. Sombat says there was no question Thaksin Shinawatra would become Thailand's next Prime Minister. "It's all there in the numbers," he says as he scribbles a set of complex calculations on a notepad at his practice in the northeastern town of Samphanta. A small, serious man with a shock of white hair, Sombat (who is known only by his first name) is neither a physician nor an economist. He's a maw duu, a Thai term describing anyone who practices shamanism, astrology or Sombat's specialty—numerology. Prime Ministers and poor farmers alike have sought him out to divine their futures. While he has never met Thaksin, he has done the Prime Minister-elect's chart. "It shows that he is at the peak of his power and fortune," says Sombat, pointing to a maze of numbers and lines.

Thaksin would surely agree that the numbers have been on his side—numbers like 257, the total seats his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party is expected to capture in the House of Representatives following this month's landslide election. That's more than twice the seats of its closest competitor, the Democrats. Or how about 28-that's the number of seats, out of 37, that his party won in Bangkok. Also working in his favor was the figure 1.3 million, the number of Thais pushed below the poverty line since the economic crisis of 1997. What really clinched Thaksin's victory, however, may have been another important number: 1 million. That's the amount of baht ($23,000) he promised to each of Thailand's small villages.

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When Thais ran these numbers earlier this month, a majority felt they added up to a vote for Thaksin and handed the 52-year-old billionaire the biggest electoral win in the country's history. Preliminary results suggest Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party will capture a majority of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives—something no party has ever achieved. Although the Election Commission is investigating vote-buying allegations against scores of candidates, and will eventually disqualify some, Thaksin has begun negotiating with smaller parties to form a coalition government. He wants at least a 320-seat bloc, which would ensure that the opposition can't file censure motions against him.

But not all of the numbers are working in Thaksin's favor. The telecoms tycoon won big by promising not just a chicken in every pot, but a virtual Chinese banquet. He told bankers he would buy out their bad loans, and promised businessmen he would weaken bankruptcy laws. He pledged to suspend farmers' debts for three years and make all doctor's visits just 70 cents. And, of course, there's that million-baht he promised to nearly 80,000 villages. "How can he afford it?" asks economist Chris Baker, co-author of Thailand's Crisis, a book about the nation's recent economic meltdown. That's the problem: he probably can't. Three years of Thai economic reform efforts have built up a huge public sector debt; some economists believe Thaksin's programs could plunge Thailand into another financial crisis.

Here's an even more troubling number: 5. That's how many years Thaksin would be barred from politics should the Constitutional Court find him guilty of charges that he concealed his assets; the trial is set to begin soon. For poor villagers in places like Samphanta, banning Thaksin would be an outrage. "If they take him from us, there will be bloodshed. We'll burn down the court," says Arai Kongbai, a truck driver who makes $3 a day, when he can find work. Each night Arai and others at the local feed store debate what they will do with the anticipated million-baht windfall. Many want to use it for the village children. Between the costs of books and uniforms, plenty of students can't afford school. "We'll give Thaksin six months," says Serm Muangman, a day laborer. "If we don't see the cash by then, no way he can stay." His friends at the store nod in agreement.

In nearby Wat Pansri village, the local men, unemployed and lounging in front of a grocery store, laugh at the idea of a politician keeping a promise like giving them 1 million baht. "I have never seen that much money. We wouldn't know what to do with it," says Somkid Pansuk. But close by, in a run-down wooden house on stilts, Thongma Singhta, 74, and her cousin Joy Sriplad, 80, have plenty of ideas. "I need a water buffalo and a refrigerator," says Thongma. As matriarchs of sharecropper families, they barely scratch out enough rice to feed themselves after paying off the landowner. "We're always in debt, 40,000 baht ($900) already, and I don't know how we'll ever pay," says Joy as she lets a gob of saliva plummet through the cracks in the floor. She is sure some politician will steal the money. "But if we get it, it will be like winning the lottery," she says. Joy and Thongma, their gums and last few jagged teeth stained red from chewing betel nut, break into blissful smiles at the thought.

If he doesn't keep his promises, Thaksin will have to deal with more than just a few disgruntled grandmothers. Nitirat Sapsomboon, a spokesman for the Assembly of the Poor, an umbrella group of farmers' and rural organizations, says there will be massive protests if Thaksin breaks his word. Nitirat points out that Thaksin failed to honor his 1995 pledge, when he was a Deputy Prime Minister, to solve Bangkok's traffic problems. That doesn't trouble villagers like Arai, the truck driver. "I don't care how many promises he's broken. I don't care if he has stolen money or how much," Arai says. "Just as long as we get our million baht."

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