NOVEMBER 1, 1999 VOL. 154 NO. 17

John Stanmeyer/Saba for TIME A NEW ERA: Students toss fire bombs.

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If Wahid brings the same iconoclasm to bear on the presidency, his tenure could prove equally enlightened. Like Megawati, his credentials as a nationalist are unassailable: the most heated rhetoric in his inauguration speech came when, in a thinly veiled reference to the Australian-led peacekeeping force in East Timor, he vowed to "defend the integrity of our territory when other countries make light of our feelings and our honor." But now that the assembly has unanimously ratified the decision to grant East Timor its independence (newly freed resistance leader Xanana Gusmão returned to Dili last week), he can afford to be more magnanimous toward other disgruntled regions. Wahid met briefly with provincial MPR representatives before the presidential vote, to ask for their support. "We reminded Gus Dur about the need to give a fair chance for leaders outside Java," says one assembly member. Already Wahid has expressed sympathy with Muslim rebels fighting for autonomy in the troubled province of Aceh, and he has called for revenues to be shared more equitably with provinces whose resources have for decades been gobbled up by Jakarta. Rais, among others, thinks that the personal contradictions that Wahid manages to balance within himself well equip him to handle those that plague fractious Indonesia.

If he can bring a measure of stability to the republic, he should have an easier time shrinking the military's role in national life. Top brass have in the past expressed respect for Wahid as a bulwark against those who would Islamize the Indonesian state. That might save the job of Wiranto, who maintains cordial ties with the new President. But the fact that the military was effectively sidelined during last week's electoral roller-coaster indicates how far and how rapidly the armed forces' fortunes have fallen. Even its current 38 seats are scheduled to be shifted in 2004 from parliament to the larger MPR, which will meet only once a year. "Indonesia is born again," says military historian Salim Said. "This is a chance to finally see if the civilians can run the country."

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The generals won't be the only ones watching. International lending agencies and foreign investors are curious to see how Wahid's amorphous economic plans take shape. Thus far he has pledged to maintain the market reforms mandated by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund and to work to distribute wealth more equitably. He has also mused about the possibility of granting tax incentives to encourage Indonesians to buy shares in small or restructuring companies. But, for Wahid and Megawati, the most useful gesture may be to choose a solid economic team and then stand back. "What Indonesia needs is not smart leaders, but respected leaders," says Rizal Prasetijo, Southeast Asia strategist for Jardine Fleming in Kuala Lumpur. The billions controlled by the IMF and World Bank will return to Indonesia if Wahid can establish a credible and stable government. Similarly, his consistent and outspoken defense of the rights of Indonesia's ethnic Chinese minority should encourage the wealthier members of that community to repatriate some of the estimated tens of billions of dollars moved offshore since the onset of chaos triggered by Suharto's resignation.

None of that goodwill will matter, however, if the new administration does not quickly begin to scrape away at the corruption that marred Habibie's reign as much as Suharto's. Wahid's own reputation is spotless, and the fact that parliament now has a full auditor's report naming names in a major scandal involving Bank Bali should open that matter up to overdue public scrutiny. "Transparency in government will take time, but I think we have a real chance under this new government," says former Finance Minister Mar'ie Muhammad.

Suspicions die hard, however. Wahid has accused his new allies in the PDI-P of trying to buy votes in the presidential election--and of nepotism. (Megawati's husband, Taufik Kiemas, raised eyebrows when he had himself and several relatives named as PDI-P parliamentarians after the June election.) More worryingly, Wahid himself has maintained the bizarre links he established with the Suharto family two years ago, when he backed the efforts of first daughter Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, better known as "Tutut," to enter politics. Since then he has visited Suharto in retirement several times and dined regularly at Habibie's home. "With Gus Dur, the Suharto family has probably got one of the greatest protectors it could have had," says Melbourne-based economist Michael Backman. Given how desperately most Indonesians want the former First Family to be prosecuted for corruption, the new President's forgiving nature could well backfire on him.

Indeed, it is Wahid's unconventional personality that worries observers most. Associates say that since his two strokes--which left him nearly blind until an operation earlier this year supposedly restored some vision in his right eye--he has become increasingly erratic and prone to mood swings: some of his recent statements have seemed paranoid and delusionary. During the sectarian killings that wracked the island of Ambon early this year, Wahid confidently declared that he saw the hand of a "Major-General 'K'" behind the violence. (No mastermind was ever found, though some observers suspect Suharto loyalists had a hand in the violence.) His affections, too, have become remarkably elastic. He staunchly supported Megawati before stiff-arming her out of the presidency. Earlier this decade he railed against Suharto, Habibie and even the upstart Rais. In the past year he has cozied up to all three. "We may have flip-flops, but at the end of the day, Gus Dur always delivers," says Golkar reformist Marzuki Darusman. A decline in Wahid's once sharp intellect, however, could easily turn maverick statements into dangerous decisions.

Critics also claim that Wahid's vaunted flexibility really reflects an opportunistic streak. He would not have won the presidency without cultivating representatives from Golkar, the party against which he campaigned for years. The price Golkar will exact for that support in terms of policy favors and cabinet posts isn't yet clear. But its support wasn't free. "Golkar became the swing vote, and in return we believe we are still the future," says Eki Syahrudin, one of the party's top strategists. At the very least, Golkar will demand a role in shaping the national agenda. Its conservative wing, some fear, could forestall reform of the bureaucratic ranks--a prerequisite for wiping out institutionalized corruption.

A greater debt could be owed to the Muslim lobby. The Axis Force parties that nominated Wahid for the presidency have long eyed him with suspicion for his closeness to leaders of other faiths. Rais, for one, has been an ally only since the downfall of Suharto. But the former head of the 25-million-strong Muhammadiyah group chose to unite with the rival N.U. to block a presidency of Habibie or Megawati--either of which could have resulted in violence. "Some of Megawati's followers were talking about revolution. Some of Habibie's followers were talking about jihad," says former Habibie adviser Dewi Fortuna Anwar. Wahid supporters maintain that that it was when he realized the Muslim lobby would never accept a Megawati presidency--because of her gender and her ties to Christian leaders--that he entered the race, to prevent them from shifting their block of votes to the incumbent. "To neutralize the Axis Force he had to become part of them," says PKB member Francis Wanandi.

Still, there seems little chance that last week's power play will radicalize Wahid, long the country's most vocal proponent of keeping faith in the personal sphere. "There is no fundamentalist movement here. Gus Dur is more moderate than me, so don't worry," says Yusril Ihza Mahendra, head of the staunchly Muslim Crescent Star Party, who cut short his own run for the presidency at Wahid's request. Of the 87% of Indonesians who describe themselves as Muslims, only about half diligently practice the religion--a gentle, Sunni strain that bears little resemblance to the more rigid faith of the Middle East. Electing Wahid--a man with greater moral authority than any other Muslim leader in the country--might actually temper the religious extremism that began to rise near the end of Suharto's reign. "In Indonesia, if you accommodate Islam, you get moderate Islam," says Anwar. "If you try to wish it away, political Islam will go underground and become more radical." Wahid's victory gives Muslim parties a seat at the table; that in itself could prevent them from asking for too much more.

Of course, such expectations rest upon the unique character of one man--a dubious proposition given the nation's dark history. "The Indonesian presidency is almost unable to resist the pressures of becoming authoritarian," says Roger Paget, professor of Asian Studies at Lewis and Clark College in the U.S. In some ways, Indonesians might take solace in Wahid's unpredictability, which may guarantee he does not tread the path marked by Suharto and, earlier, the arrogant Sukarno. That the new President is an uncertain man could serve well in these uncertain times.

Reported by Zamira Loebis and Jason Tedjasukmana/Jakarta, David Liebhold/Bangkok and Massimo Calabresi/Washington

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