|
High Tea and Talk of High Times
With Eugene Law, director Celestial Asia Securities
By MAUREEN TKACIK
March 25, 2000
Web posted at 4:00 p.m. Hong Kong time, 3:00 a.m. EST
Readers, when the sun is giving that sort of life-affirming, urinal-yellow glow to the Hong Kong haze; when it's suddenly gotten so a walk out the doors of the Citicorp Centre is like a protracted embrace from an ample-busted great aunt (or two); when the season of springtime is soothing winter stresses and rendering restless reporters who'd rather be in Boracai or Bangkok or Bali...
Then it's hard to hold it against Richard Li--or the clannish, cultish Pacific Century Group--for expelling TIME reporters at today's conference held by Credit Suisse First Boston to instead sit by the Conrad Hotel poolside and say "c'est la vie," spending the afternoon gossiping over high tea. Take that, broadband content and connectivity! I got yer synergy right here, P.C.C.W.H.K.T.!
Q: Okay, so I was a little annoyed to return to my desk only to find out that company's share price had risen again. It's back above HK $20. Eugene, what's the deal?
A: Well, PCCW had gotten so low that I think you saw a lot of bargain-hunting, and then the press has picked up on this idea that the Cable & Wireless HKT deal was endorsed by Beijing...
|
|
MARKET NEWS
|
CNNfn: Asia Market Wrap
- Friday, March 24, 2000
Market Q&A: Surprise! It's a Bull Market
But Taiwan is not out of the woods yet, says John Brebeck
- Tuesday, March 21, 2000
Market Q&A: Jitterbug
Taipei stocks take a dive. Scott Blanchard on what next
- Monday, March 20, 2000
Market Q&A: Tech Fatigue?
Irrational exuberance could be on its last legs. But for better or worse, John Schofield thinks it still has legs.
- Tuesday, March 15, 2000
|
|
|
ALSO IN TIME
|
|
|
ASIAWEEK
|
|
|
Q: You mean the Far Eastern Economic Review story? But that came out yesterday. And it's not as though the clues weren't there.
A: Yes, but local press just got wind of it today; it had to be digested. The thought that the company really does have the blessing of China, I think, gave people a new sense of confidence in the company or at least a good excuse to buy. It's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy anyway.
Q: You can say that again. The story was basically unabashedly "leaked" by the company's vice-chairman, Francis Yuen.
A: Look, the market's all a matter of talking points these days. We're nearing an 18,000 Hang Seng, the market's quite pricey, so you've got to give people something to talk about. A cover story in FEER is something to talk about.
|
INTERACTIVE
|
Been shorting the Nasdaq? Buying Thai cement stocks? Join TIME's online support group for cocontrarians. Put in your two cents here
|
|
Q: But did you read the story? It was all PCCW spin, straight from the proverbial horse's mouth. All two and a half pages of it.
A: I haven't actually read it. But the guanxi thing, it's a talking point, you know.
Q: Anyway, it's all a matter of stock-picking right now, because the market is pretty nicely valued.
A: All the action is going to companies like Netalone [the stock formerly known as Cybersonic Technologies which was formerly known as Silver Eagle Holdings, up 13% today], e-Kong [up 9% today], CCT Telecom [also up 9%], Founder [up 8%], and e2-Capital [up a stonking 26% today]. Internet stocks, all of 'em. And what about the Dow's 1,300 rise in the last seven days? What about the resurgence of banks and brokerages and transports? There are still a bunch of companies out there that have remained pretty flat whilst China Telecom and Hutchison bulged and burgeoned and conducted blitzkrieg across the whole Hang Seng Index.
Q: You are talking about Old Economy versus New Economy, aren't you?
A: Am I that transparent?
Q: I don't really think it's a matter of Old versus New Economy in Hong Kong. It's all newsflow.
A: Speaking of newsflow, how about them Taiwanese politics? Chen Shui-bian -- everyone's worst-case scenario -- wins the election, Taipei streets fill with angry protesters, KMT-linked companies are thrown into jeopardy... and the index gains 1,000.
Q: Here's what I think. Before the election, you have all sorts of emotions flying. Lien Chan's looking good, it goes up; Zhu Rongji threatens the country, the index plummets. Chen has some successful rallies, the market falls 6.6%, then suddenly he doesn't look so great anymore and it gains back another two. By the time the election happened it was going to be an anticlimax either way, because everyone was anticipating everything in advance. And when it turned out to be a lot smoother than expected, the market realized it was free to move back to where it was a few weeks ago--back in the 10,000 direction.
A: Obviously, I'm not a political commentator, but Taiwan is behind us now. The market is going to be following Wall Street and looking for corporate news to follow, like Hutchison's sale this week of part of its Vodafone stake, or PCCW's ties to the Chinese government, or a new IPO hitting the market.
Q: Speaking of which, do you think the Old Economy resurgence will help out PetroChina's multibillion-dollar dual listing next month?
A: Well, obviously it will help somewhat if it continues. But as you saw today, the offering has already attracted some significant investors, BP Amoco at $1 billion and the Hong Kong conglomerate consortium at $350 million. It's not a punter stock, but I think it's going to do well. Of course, I would say that since we are co-managing the offering.
Be it overvalued tech stocks, high-profile mergers or corruption scandals, the region's stock markets can go on wild rides. Join the discussion here
Write to us at mail@web.timeasia.com
Search for recent Market Q&As
TIME Asia home
|
|
LATEST HEADLINES:
|
Click Here for the latest regional analysis from TIME Asia
|
|
