Calm Before the Storm?

Thursday, Jul. 19, 2001 By NICK PAPADOPOULOS

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Thursday, July 19, 2001

Abdurrahman Wahid appears headed for a face-off with his political rivals Friday that may be the beginning of the end of his tumultuous tenure as Indonesian President. Critics say it is too late for the aging leader to secure a compromise with political foes pushing for his impeachment. TIMEasia.com editor Nick Papadopoulos spoke to TIME East Asia correspondent Tim McGirk in Jakarta about the mood on the streets. Edited excerpts:

Tim, President Wahid is standing firm on his threat to declare a state of emergency at 6pm on Friday, July 20, but is leaving room for compromise. What's he playing at?
He is carrying out an extended bluff. He's trying to scare Megawati's (Sukarnoputri, the Indonesian Vice President) people and the other political parties into working out some sort of a compromise that would allow him to keep him at least some power, and the position of the presidency. Wahid is desperate at this stage, and he realizes that if he were to try to call a state of emergency, the only result it would have is to speed his own downfall because he doesn't have the support of the military behind him.

Do you think, though, that he will carry out his threat?
Wahid says he'll announce on Friday that he's going to declare a state of emergency, but that it won't go into effect until July 31, which is a day before the scheduled impeachment hearing is set to begin. At this stage there's a 50-50 chance that he'll make good his threat.

What is the mood in Jakarta now? And what's the situation on the streets?
I am looking out my hotel window at a roundabout, which has been the focus of all previous demonstrations in Jakarta -- and it is absolutely empty. There is absolutely no sign of these mystical warriors who have pledged to defend Wahid to their deaths. Most of them would have to come up from East Java, and there doesn't seem to be any more than a trickle arriving. The President has spoken of mobilizing a quarter-of-a-million supporters, but that's not going to happen. More barbed wire and security installations are being erected around the parliament building, but the empty streets reflect the lack of public interest in this matter. Indonesians see this as a battle of the political elite. And so far none of the opposing sides have decided to bring their supporters onto the streets. It's all incredibly calm.

Where was President Wahid today and where will he be tomorrow to declare this state of emergency?
He spent today in East Java ostensibly to pray at the tomb of his late mother, but I think he was also interested in checking to see what sort of support he has there. On Friday he'll be in Jakarta.

Wahid was meant to rescue Indonesia and he seemed to have the support of the people when he came to office. How do people feel about him now?
Outside of his stronghold in eastern Java, his support is laughably draining away. Most people now think that even if there isn't conclusive evidence that he embezzled money -- the original charge against him -- he's got to go. The view is that the political situation has become so complicated, so paralyzed, that the only choice seems to be getting rid of Wahid.

So a compromise with his rivals is unlikely?
Wahid is seen as a great dealmaker and the fact that he is blind doesn't seem to impair his political radar at all. He's busy trying to negotiate support from within the Old Guard, nationalist wing of Megawati's party, and also from the Golkar party.

Does he at least have the support of the military?
The military have made it very clear that they would not support any presidential decree dissolving the parliament. So Wahid would not have any support from them, or from the police force.

Has the Vice President announced her intentions come tomorrow, or August 1?
She hasn't said anything publicly, but she has let the word out to party officials that she does indeed want to become President. Her only action at this point is refusing to take the many calls that the President has been making to her. Wahid is trying everything, including money politics, they say, to try to win over as many of the opposition legislators as possible.

Who are in Jakarta at the moment and supposedly ready to begin hearing the impeachment case against the President.
That's right. There are close to 700 of the assembly delegates holed up in a five-star hotel outside the parliament building.

Let's say Wahid declares a state of emergency tomorrow and his rivals immediately gather to begin the impeachment case. Throw street riots into the equation. Could Indonesia have a new President by Saturday? Is that too farfetched a scenario?
It's not so farfetched but it's quite unlikely. There's a lot of brinkmanship going on right now between Wahid and Megawati's supporters and the other political parties.

What effect is all this having on the economy, on tourism?
The rupiah has remained stable, but foreign investors are being warned away. Expatriate workers from the big companies also have plans to leave Indonesia if the situation worsens come July 31.