Advantage Blake Lewis

It's not easy predicting a reality TV show winner using search term data. It's more art than science. I learned that hard lesson during the second season of Dancing with The Stars. Based on an overwhelming number of searches for female wrestler Stacy Keibler (she had over 10 times that of the other finalists), I declared her the winner 24 hours before the show's finale. I couldn't have been further off.

Stacy Keibler finished third. In a humbling post mortem of my prediction, I looked back at the way people were searching for Stacy. Her searches weren't about her dancing ability or even the show. Internet users were looking for pictures of the tall, leggy blond wrestler, fewer clothes preferred, en masse. This led to a new step in my prediction method, what I refer to now as an SKCC, the Stacy Keibler Correction Coefficient.

If we look at searches for the two American Idol finalists going into the show's finale on Wednesday, beatboxer Blake Lewis, 25, is edging out 17-year-old Jordin Sparks by just 25%. Compare that to his searches for the prior week, which were 270% more numerous than Jordin's. Even though the race is narrowing, it would appear sound to declare Blake as the favorite going into the finale. Not so fast.

When you analyze the search terms that contained "jordin sparks" over the last four weeks, 5.9% of those searches were about the singer's physical stature, with searches such as "jordin sparks height," "how tall is jordin sparks," even "jordin sparks shoe size." Over 3.1% of her searches were about her father, former New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys cornerback Phillipi Sparks. Less than 1% of Jordin's searches were related to her music, with the top search focused on her cover last week of "I Who Have Nothing." You also have to consider the non-conventional spelling of her first name; some searchers were seeking "jordan sparks," which account for about 1% of her total searches. [an error occurred while processing this directive]

Blake Lewis is another story. Blake's searches focused first on the topic of sexual preference, with "blake lewis gay" accounting for 4.25% of his searches. Apparently Internet searchers are undecided on his orientation; 0.5% of Blake's searches were for "blake lewis girlfriend." Alas, in Blake we find the classic Stacy Keibler Correction Coefficient: over 3% of his searches were for "blake lewis pictures" and "blake lewis shirtless." To his advantage however, over 2% of his searches, double that of Jordin's, focused on his music and unique beatbox style.

Taking the analysis one step further, you have to consider the American Idol audience. I can create a profile by looking at visitors to the American Idol website. Over 61% of site visitors for the four weeks ending May 19, 2007 were over the age of 35, predominately female, and more likely to live in rural areas, all factors that would seem to give advantages to the old-fashioned song styling of the young Jordin Sparks. Counter that would be the fact that text message voters are more likely to be Blake Lewis' young urban peeps.

It's a tough call, but I'll put my neck out on this one. Notwithstanding Tuesday's performance and the obfuscation of search data thanks to Sanjaya's hair and Antonella's wet T-shirt pics, going into this week's finale, I predict: advantage Blake.

Bill Tancer is general manager of global research at Hitwise.