The 5 Meanings Of Arnold
Schwarzenegger's big win offers a guide to 2004–if you know how to interpret it, that is

If there is one lesson to be learned from California's wild recall, it is that there is no one lesson. At a time when other politicians hauled around briefcases full of 100-page platforms, Arnold Schwarzenegger spouted lines from his movies, gave no substantive interviews and agreed to exactly one debate, for which he knew the questions in advance. And finally, just as the know-it-alls started talking up a too-close-to-call Florida-style recount, Schwarzenegger left everyone else in the dust with 49% of the vote. Plucked from a two-part ballot and a 135-candidate field, in what was the largest turnout for a gubernatorial election in more than 20 years, Schwarzenegger's victory could only be described as a landslide.

Just about everyone who is going to face the voters 13 months from now saw something positive in the results. There are myriad theories as to what the Arnold Effect means–and most of them are true.

1 ANGER CAN BE YOUR FRIEND

The polls in California had been closed for all of seven minutes when Howard Dean issued a statement declaring that the recall had been about neither Governor Gray Davis nor Schwarzenegger but rather "the frustration so many people are feeling about the way things are going." The former Vermont Governor is not the only one who sees parallels between the antiwar fury that has propelled him to the front of the Democratic pack and the economic discontent in California. Once ignited, the anger there could not be tamed.

2 TAKE NO ONE FOR GRANTED

For Republicans across the country, there was no more heartening aspect of the election than the fact that Schwarzenegger cut deep into constituencies that Democrats regard as their own. In union households, Schwarzenegger ran roughly even with the leading Democratic contender, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante, and he won nearly a third of Latinos and close to 20% of African Americans.

3 CALIFORNIA DREAMING

It's probably wishful thinking for Republicans to predict that Schwarzenegger can put California–the nation's largest state–into the Republican column for Bush next year, but now they can dream a little. Although Washington Republicans stayed on the sidelines through the recall campaign, Schwarzenegger is keenly aware that they have an enormous stake in seeing him succeed.

4 THE SWING VOTER LIVES!

It has become almost an article of faith among those who follow politics that the swing voter is vanishing. But if California voters elect a Democratic Governor and 11 months later turn him out for a Republican, might you not call that a swing?

5 DON'T SNICKER

California's recall started as a partisan diversion, fueled by conservative radio hosts and a rich Republican Congressman, Darrell Issa, who was willing to spend his millions to put the question of throwing out the Governor to a vote. By Election Day, it had turned into something much bigger. California's recall suggests that with a limping economy and continued problems overseas, voters across the nation are feeling skittish and might turn to a candidate just because he promises change. Incumbents, beware.

—from TIME, October 20, 2003

Questions

1. From what traditionally Democratic constituencies did Schwarzenegger receive votes?

2. Who started the recall process in California?