Apocalypse No

It’s been a tough week for the Earth, what with such headlines as “Earth is Doomed” and “Armageddon set for March 21, 2014” appearing in news media around the world. The threat came in the form of 2003QQ47, an asteroid three-quarters of a mile wide that apparently was barreling toward Earth with bad intentions for that March date in 2014. Some news accounts warned that its explosive force upon impact would be 350,000 megatons, eight million times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. By late in the week, however, the threat had evaporated, leaving many journalists with egg on their faces and a heated debate among astronomers. This alarm, along with the five previous over-hyped warnings since 1997, could eventually undermine the reputation, integrity and effectiveness of the small band of dedicated asteroid hunters. As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

QQ47 was discovered August 24 by the automated LINEAR detection system in New Mexico. A few points in its orbit were recorded and the information was posted on the Jet Propulsion Lab Sentry website and that of an Italian asteroid-hunting counterpart. Based on the early, sketchy calculations of the asteroid’s orbit, both groups gave QQ47 a modest Torino rating of one. Torino ratings, so called because they were adopted at a Near Earth Object (NEO) meeting in Turin, Italy, range from zero (no likely consequences) to ten (certain collision). The rating of one, originally assigned to QQ47, meant that it merited “careful monitoring.”

      Ordinarily, the press might not have paid much attention to the LINEAR discovery. But the British government’s  NEO Information Center issued a press release on the findings that was immediately picked up by the Reuters news agency and spread around the world. While the press release and the Reuters story mentioned the early, calculated odds of a collision as only one in 909,000 and that the Torino rating was likely to drop after further observations, David Morrison, a NASA Senior Scientist, charges that “they still treated this as a serious warning of a threat to Earth.” Many astronomers agreed, fearing that the subtleties would be lost on many journalists and the public.  Turns out they were right.

       In CCNet, a highly regarded Web site moderated by Benny Peiser, a British anthropologist and NEO analyst, Peiser himself lashed out at the NEO Information Center’s decision to issue its press release. “It would appear from that all the lessons learned from five years of our PR blunders, media gaffes and errors of judgment have been forgotten. Crying wolf becomes official policy.” By mid-week, further observations of QQ47’s orbit led astronomers to drop its Torino rating to zero.

The Great (and short-lived) Asteroid Scare of 2003 was over, and QQ47 is not an asteroid with the Earth’s name on it. But in the interest of full disclosure, there is an asteroid out there with my name on it. It’s called Jaroff 7829, it’s five to six miles across and can be found in the general vicinity of the orbit of Mars. And like me, it presents no immediate threat to anyone