The Middle Is a Bad Place to Be

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A group of neighbors have gathered on the patio of an elegant home in Greenwich, Conn., on a gorgeous late-summer evening. Standing at the crest of an emerald lawn that unfurls gracefully toward the Long Island Sound, they sip wine (white) and bubbly water (Perrier). They are mostly Republicans, but of a rarefied sort—wealthy, moderate, Northeastern—and they have a difficult decision to make: whether to toss out their longtime, moderate and estimable Republican Congressman Christopher Shays. To that end, they have come to Sue McCally's home to meet Diane Farrell, who is Shays' moderate and estimable Democratic opponent. There is a slightly illicit feeling to the gathering. Many of these people know Chris Shays personally. "He's a good friend of our family," says John Moeling, a Norwalk Realtor. "He found a temporary congressional job for my son. But moderate Republicans have lost their influence over the Bush Administration. So the question is, What's the best way to create some political balance? By continuing to support Republican moderates or by voting Democratic in the hopes they'll win a house of Congress and provide a blocking force against the Bush Administration? A few weeks ago, I sent Chris an e-mail saying that much as I admired him, I couldn't vote for him this time."

Moeling, obviously, is not your average voter. And Shays' district, which comprises some of the wealthiest suburbs of New York City, is not your average congressional district. But Moeling's question—how do we restore some balance to American politics?—is at the heart of the 2006 congressional election. The most likely answer is that the moderate wing of the Republican Party, especially in New England, will have to be eviscerated. This election may provide a historic completion to the sordid business of ideological realignment that began with the decimation of the Democratic Party in the South. The stability provided by two regionally diverse parties with flourishing moderate wings has been supplanted by clashing Northern liberal and Southern conservative parties, a system in which, ironically, the surest path to political balance is a divided government, with one party holding the presidency and the other at least one house of Congress.

Shays is one of the last vestiges of the Republican Party that Abraham Lincoln led, the province of austere New England merchants and flaming abolitionists. He is a former Peace Corps volunteer who has served in the Congress for 19 years, during which he has distinguished himself by producing bipartisan legislation on issues ranging from the environment to campaign-finance reform and immigration. "His vote against the impeachment of Bill Clinton meant a lot to me," says Steve Myers, a retired physicist who is standing next to Moeling. "I've been a longtime Shays supporter, but my feelings toward him have corroded because of his enthusiastic support for the war in Iraq."

His support has become less enthusiastic in this election season. "I think we need to put some pressure on the Iraqi government," Shays told me after returning, in late August, from his 14th visit to the war zone. He said he was frustrated by the inability of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to create a government of national unity. "We should set out a phased-withdrawal plan, drawing down our troops as the number of Iraqi troops increases." Shays insists his new position isn't a sign of electoral panic. He points to public and private polls that show him ahead of Farrell—and sources at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee say that of the three seats held by Republican moderates in Connecticut, the Shays seat will be the most difficult for the Democrats to win.

But there is a strong sense, as you travel the district, that Shays' position is beginning to decay. In mid-August, I watched the Congressman take questions in Darien from a luncheon group called the romeos (Retired Outstanding Men Eating Out). Shays was very patient, taking questions for almost two hours, and the romeos were appreciative. Toward the end, however, a gentleman named Howard Zinner rose to praise Shays for his civility and moderation and then asked this question: "What do you have to say about politicians like your fellow Republican, House majority leader John Boehner [of Ohio], who calls those who don't agree with the President 'Defeatocrats'? Why are there so damn few Republicans like you?"

Shays replied with quiet vehemence. Boehner's comments were "dumb, stupid, but I can point to plenty of Democrats who do similar things ... [House minority leader] Nancy Pelosi threatened Carolyn Maloney, Ellen Tauscher and Jane Harman—all moderate Democrats—against co-sponsoring legislation with me. There are problems on both sides." Afterward, I asked Zinner about Shays' response. "I really respect him, I've always voted for him, and he had a point," Zinner said. Does that mean you'll vote for him this time? "No way," he said. "If we don't get some meaningful congressional oversight of the Bush Administration, this country may be gone forever."

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