Which Brand Would You Buy?

(2 of 3)

Is it possible that these victories represent the glimmerings of a blissfully reasonable new era? The front runners for the presidency in both parties, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton, are essentially Sane sorts. But both will have to navigate the partisan interests, especially the secular and religious extremists, in their respective parties. And both will have to worry about being overtaken by candidates representing their party's version of the Party of Passion.

In fact, there appears to be a growing market for a moderate version of "America First" populism, which has been represented in recent presidential elections only by extremists like Pat Buchanan and Dennis Kucinich. The outlines of this product are well known: more restrictive trade and illegal-immigration policies, a "bring the troops home soonest" foreign policy and a more conservative view of social issues like abortion and gay marriage. The Pew Research Center conducted an extensive survey of the American electorate, dividing voters into nine political types—and while this sort of slicing and dicing is superficial almost by definition, a stunning subtext emerged: the populist proclivities of nearly 70% of the electorate, ranging across the spectrum from "social conservatives" to "disadvantaged Democrats." When Pew asked if it was better for the government to focus on problems at home or be active in the world, the homebodies won 49% to 44%, with a dramatic split according to family income (the wealthier, the worldlier). "I wouldn't be surprised," says Carville, "if the coming word in American politics was neo-isolationism. Somebody in one of these parties is going to run on this platform."

In the Democracy Corps' Dobbs-vs.-Friedman election, Dobbs won 54% to 40%. But these results are questionable at best. The test was probably skewed by the inability of the pollsters to present the pro-globalization position as clearly as Friedman would have. "In today's world," the Friedman statement begins, "technology has enabled individuals and businesses anywhere to network and compete with each other. This presents America with new challenges, but also with new opportunities." Yecch! The results might have been different if the statement began: "Today's global market means that you pay less for almost everything you buy. This has cost some American jobs, and we have to work harder at creating new and better ones."