Which Brand Would You Buy?

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According to Pew, Americans believe that free-trade agreements have been good for the U.S. by a 47%-to-34% plurality. But by a thumping 69%-to-22% margin, they also believe that outsourcing has been bad. Ah, the mysteries of polling! But even this level of support for a politics of Passion is surprising. Populism has never been a majority tendency in American politics. It is very difficult to build a Passion coalition. There are profound differences between liberal and conservative populists, even if they agree on neo-isolationist, nativist and protectionist issues. A populist Democrat like Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin might lose a good chunk of Passion conservatives because he favors abortion rights; a populist Republican like Sam Brownback of Kansas might lose an equally large chunk of the Passionate majority if he didn't support a drawdown of troops in Iraq.

And then there is the pessimism problem. Populists of both strains tend to believe that the system is rigged by dark and powerful forces that prevent the little guy from getting ahead, which means they tend to be angry. They also tend to be dividers rather than uniters. Even the nice-guy populism attempted by former Senator John Edwards in the last presidential campaign had a divisive edge. His theme was "two Americas." Pessimism, anger and unsubtle divisiveness tend to be total nonstarters in American politics. "Being optimistic is a patriotic value," says Diane Feldman. "If you are down on the United States, you are not patriotic." Finally, the Party of Passion has a reality problem. Putting up trade barriers may cause massive inflation at home and social turmoil in countries like China; a strong flow of immigrants is absolutely necessary to the economy; and a peremptory withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq might leave civil war and a safe zone for al-Qaeda operatives.

In the end, the only plausible path out of the current morass is for the Party of Sanity to regain control of the political process from the partisans now running it into the ground. But don't be surprised if people like Russ Feingold, John Edwards and Sam Brownback do much better than expected in the next presidential election—and don't be surprised if the Sanity candidates suddenly discover their gutbucket roots.