TIME Online: Hello everyone.
Welcome to our AOL/TIME coverage of the attack on Kosovo. Our guest is Major General Edward Atkeson,
a senior associate at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies
in Washington, D.C.
and a former deputy chief of staff intelligence,
US Army Europe.
Major General. Atkeson has also served
as the deputy commandant of the US
War College
Sorry, US Army War College.
Welcome, Maj. General Atkeson.
Edward Atkeson: Thank you.
Question: Will the Yugoslavian government retaliate?
Edward Atkeson: I think that's quite a possibility.
Going out on a limb like this, we're not sure what's going
to
happen.
They have a number of options.
They could retaliate against NATO troops down in Macedonia.
There's a large concentration of them there now, a concentration thatŐs there to protect the civilian observers who were
in
Kosovo,
particularly the French.
They could retaliate at sea -- they could interdict sea
traffic
on the
Adriatic.
They have submarines and frigates based in Montenegro,
high speed missile boats that operate on the coastline,
and of course they just might retaliate extra-heavily in
Kosovo -- heavier than they have been.
Question: Do you think Russia will get involved militarily?
Edward Atkeson: There's an unfortunate risk there that the Russians may
withdraw participation in the Bosnian cease-fire group
they belonged to, the Partnership for Peace, which is part of
NATO.
They have withdrawn their representative from NATO
headquarters.
More dangerous than that, they may provide the Serbians with
some
equipment and supplies.
The most dangerous thing, I think, though, is that this may
become
an issue
in their presidential election next year,
and some of the competitors, either on the very far left or
far
right, could use this to gain support against the middle-of-the-roaders.
My own sense is that the Russian election next year is more
important for world security
than our election will be -- because the possibilities of a radical coming to power is
much
greater
there than in our country.
Question: Could you comment on the opinion across Europe regarding the
strikes?
Question: Have we heard from Greece or Turkey yet?
Edward Atkeson: No.
We've just had discussions with them behind closed doors.
But there's been nothing released about those so far.
Generally, the Greeks are sympathetic to the Serbs and the
Turks
to the Albanians.
Question: Can extended action weaken the NATO alliance and overburden a
downsized US military?
Edward Atkeson: Yes, if this becomes very prolonged,
people will get tired of it.
They will lose their enthusiasm.
You will see a diminution of support.
And that can happen in both our country and among our
allies.
TIME Online: Secretary. of Defense William Cohen is just now giving a press
briefing about the attack...
Edward Atkeson: And if it happens in our country, that could be damaging to
the
support for our own forces.
Question: Are you afraid that this may start a World Conflict?
Edward Atkeson: I don't see that occurring.
But it could ignite a broader conflict that would extend
down
into
Macedonia, into Bosnia, and into Albania.
More damaging than that would be if Greece and Turkey were
to
become involved.
But I don't think the stakes are high enough for it to go
very far
beyond that.
Question: Was it necessary to bomb this quickly? I'm sure a
diplomatic
solution could have been reached if we would just try and not get
trigger
happy.
Edward Atkeson: Well, we have been warning and warning and warning,
with no response.
And the President placed American prestige on the line
when he warned President Milosevic that we would attack if
he did
not
agree to our proposal.
So the fat was in the fire, and there was no way that we
could
avoid this
without irreparably damaging US or NATO prestige.
Question: How long can we expect these bombings to go on?
Edward Atkeson: I would expect that they would go on for a matter of weeks.
There are many different types of targets that we have to
engage.
Right now, they are primarily after strategic targets
and the air defense system.
The next round will be aimed at Serb forces within Kosovo,
but they are quite dispersed,
and it will take quite some time to inflict significant
damage on
them.
And it is not clear that we have a strategy in mind if
these initial attacks are not successful, at least if they
do not
change Mr. Milosevic's
mind.
But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
Question: Any word of U.S. Army who are deployed in Bosnia doing
anything
about this situation?
Edward Atkeson: No, I think that's very unlikely,
because we have thrown down our forces there.
They are about half of what we originally sent in.
And we have withdrawn much of the heavy equipment that we
brought in
there.
There's also the danger that if we withdrew forces from
Bosnia, that the Bosnian Serbs might take advantage of that to
attack the Bosnian
Muslims or whatever residual forces we would leave there.
Question: Why should we bomb someone for protecting their own country?
TIME Online: Cohen says that NATO ground troops are not
part of this particular operation, in terms of carrying it
out.
Edward Atkeson: Well, we consider this a humanitarian effort,
that the Serbs have badly abused their authority over their
own
people,
TIME Online: Chief of staff Shelton says that they have very little
damage
assessment as yet.
Edward Atkeson: and there's a general revulsion among Western countries for
that
behavior. It's a good question.
Question: Isn't there a huge risk that this bombing might merely serve to solidify the Serbian support behind Milosevic?
Edward Atkeson: Yes, there is a risk of that.
But I wouldn't say that it's necessarily a huge risk.
It's one of the risks that we've taken.
TIME Online: Cohen says that if Milosevic fails to turn to the peace
option for Kosovo, NATO will continue with their plan of
"deterrence" until he no longer threatens Kosovo.
Edward Atkeson: The people who have made the decisions in Serbia are pretty
well
solidified now. It's not likely that it will promote additional support for
the
leadership there.
Question: When the bombing fails -- and it will -- what is the "plan"
of
action?
TIME Online: What would be your opinion of the best plan?
Edward Atkeson: Well, Mr. Berger, the National Security Advisor, has already
said
that we would just
go on and bomb some more.
That's not a very satisfactory answer.
But we will just have to wait and see.
Question: What is the time line for completing airstrikes?
Edward Atkeson: I donŐt think that there is any timeline.
A great deal will depend on how the American people and
their
allies view this effort,
and as we said before, there's a risk that they will become
impatient and simply want to stop.
It will depend very heavily on whether there is greater
determination to prevail in Washington or in Belgrade.
But I would observe that this is their country and the
outcome is more important to them than it is to us, so we
should
not
be terribly surprised if we tire before they do.
Question: Don't you think it's wrong to aid the Albanians in liberating
SERBIAN land? I mean, nobody here would like it if a certain race
tried to
liberate US lands and a big country came to their aid (Russia, China).
TIME Online: Chief of Staff Gen. Hugh Shelton is saying that there is no timeline for this operation...Cohen is saying that he hasn't had any conversations today with the Russian Defense Minister about the attack on Yugoslavia.
Edward Atkeson: The objective is not
to win
the war for the
Albanians. The objective
is to stop the Serbs from killing the Albanians.
The agreement that we wanted the Serbs to sign would have
disarmed the Albanian force, and left Kosovo as an
autonomous
province within Serbia.
TIME Online: Cohen is saying that there's no word on Serbian retaliation
against civilians in Kosovo as yet.
Question: It seems to me that the US has diminished the role of the UN
with
the actions in Iraq, Bosnia, and now Kosovo. What are your
thoughts?
Should we just demand that the UN handle this problem?
Edward Atkeson: Secretary General Annan of the UN was just on television
earlier
this afternoon,
and while he was sympathetic to the Western effort to
protect
the Kosovars, he was very critical of the principle of
having UN
members attack a country without the approval of the
Security
Council.
So apparently he believes our heart may be in the right
place,
but our head is not.
Question: Are air defenses in Kosovo similar to those in Iraq?
Edward Atkeson: I would say that they are more sophisticated than in Iraq,
but
generally similar.
But they are better hidden because of the terrain and the
weather, and I would expect that the Serb operators are probably
more
competent than the Iraqis.
TIME Online: Cohen is now reiterating the US's interest in a strong NATO
and
US relationship wit Russia pointing out that the Russians are not pleased with
Milosevic
either.
Question: About how much land do the Tomahawk missiles destroy?
Edward Atkeson: Well there are two different Tomahawk missiles:
the one fired from a ship that has about a 1000 pound warhead,
and those on the B-52's that are double that size.
So, in World War II we used to call bombs like that
blockbusters.
They have different kinds of warheads.
Some of them are simple high explosives to do destruction
above ground level, and others have hardened warheads that
can penetrate may feet of concrete before they explode.
And I would expect that there's a good mix of these being
fired.
News reports cited the figure of about 100 missiles from
both
naval and air.
TIME Online: NO indications of any losses or casualties by NATO forces. Cohen believes that all NATO planes safely returned to
their
bases.
Question: Would the draft be reinstated if we went to war, and what would
it
take for it to be reinstated?
Edward Atkeson: Well, if we went to war, if we had a declaration of war as
the
Constitution calls for,
that would be such a major act that the entire country would
be
mobilized,
but right now, there is no peer competitor with the United
States
in the military field.
In other words, we're the biggest kid on the block.
Question: If, in fact, that this action is considered justified...why
are
they using AMERICAN planes, warships, Tomahawks, SOLDIERS? I don't
see
any other country putting up what we have?
Edward Atkeson: Oh yes, other forces are involved.
Certainly the British are involved,
and I would expect that we would find that French aircraft
and possibly naval units from several different countries.
This is a very large effort.
Certainly the Italian navy would have patrol
responsibilities.
And the Germans may be making some kind of contribution.
Question: What is stopping the Serbs from launching an attack on the
12,000
NATO forces in Macedonia?
Edward Atkeson: The main thing that stops them -- or I should say the main
thing
that deters them --
is their recognition of NATO's capabilities for defending
itself.
It would be a long way for them to send troops all the way
down
to Macedonia.
We would interdict the rail lines and road lines, and it
would be
very expensive for them.
They could make small raids, but I would not foresee a
major
counter-offensive.
Question: Will the KLA join forces with NATO and, if so, would we be
construed
as terrorist?
Edward Atkeson: I think it's unlikely that NATO would want to get very close
to
the KLA.
Our whole argument has been that we are impartial between
the KLA
and the Serbs,
that we are trying to pacify the area, not to give an
advantage
to one side or the other.
Question: How is the national interest threatened because of this
conflict?
Edward Atkeson: Our national interests are in preventing wars all over the
world.
It's unhealthy for us and for our friends and allies.
It's bad for business,
and it's very damaging from a prestige point of view for
both
the US and NATO to stand by while one very strong force
inflicts casualties on innocent bystanders.
It's kind of the old rule: do something, even if it's
wrong.
TIME Online: Any closing thoughts?
Edward Atkeson: Yes, I think that the principal thing we have to guard
against
here
is not being misled that we can readily become involved in
other people's wars without paying a price, that this is a
risky
undertaking -- we're not sure what the outcome will be.
But we hope that the situation will be better when we're
finished
with the effort
than when we started.
My criticism with what we're doing is that I don't think that
it's
good strategy
to pin our actions on hope.
That's not a good basis for determining your military
enterprises.
TIME Online: Thank you very much for joining us this afternoon, Major
General
Atkeson.
TIME.com Special Report: A Kosovo Primer