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Conflict in Kosovo
Edward Atkeson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies

Transcript from March 24, 1999


TIME Online: Hello everyone. Welcome to our AOL/TIME coverage of the attack on Kosovo. Our guest is Major General Edward Atkeson, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. and a former deputy chief of staff intelligence, US Army Europe. Major General. Atkeson has also served as the deputy commandant of the US War College Sorry, US Army War College. Welcome, Maj. General Atkeson.

Edward Atkeson: Thank you.

Question: Will the Yugoslavian government retaliate?

Edward Atkeson: I think that's quite a possibility. Going out on a limb like this, we're not sure what's going to happen. They have a number of options. They could retaliate against NATO troops down in Macedonia. There's a large concentration of them there now, a concentration thatŐs there to protect the civilian observers who were in Kosovo, particularly the French. They could retaliate at sea -- they could interdict sea traffic on the Adriatic. They have submarines and frigates based in Montenegro, high speed missile boats that operate on the coastline, and of course they just might retaliate extra-heavily in Kosovo -- heavier than they have been.

Question: Do you think Russia will get involved militarily?

Edward Atkeson: There's an unfortunate risk there that the Russians may withdraw participation in the Bosnian cease-fire group they belonged to, the Partnership for Peace, which is part of NATO. They have withdrawn their representative from NATO headquarters. More dangerous than that, they may provide the Serbians with some equipment and supplies. The most dangerous thing, I think, though, is that this may become an issue in their presidential election next year, and some of the competitors, either on the very far left or far right, could use this to gain support against the middle-of-the-roaders. My own sense is that the Russian election next year is more important for world security than our election will be -- because the possibilities of a radical coming to power is much greater there than in our country.

Question: Could you comment on the opinion across Europe regarding the strikes?

Question: Have we heard from Greece or Turkey yet?

Edward Atkeson: No. We've just had discussions with them behind closed doors. But there's been nothing released about those so far. Generally, the Greeks are sympathetic to the Serbs and the Turks to the Albanians.

Question: Can extended action weaken the NATO alliance and overburden a downsized US military?

Edward Atkeson: Yes, if this becomes very prolonged, people will get tired of it. They will lose their enthusiasm. You will see a diminution of support. And that can happen in both our country and among our allies.

TIME Online: Secretary. of Defense William Cohen is just now giving a press briefing about the attack...

Edward Atkeson: And if it happens in our country, that could be damaging to the support for our own forces.

Question: Are you afraid that this may start a World Conflict?

Edward Atkeson: I don't see that occurring. But it could ignite a broader conflict that would extend down into Macedonia, into Bosnia, and into Albania. More damaging than that would be if Greece and Turkey were to become involved. But I don't think the stakes are high enough for it to go very far beyond that.

Question: Was it necessary to bomb this quickly? I'm sure a diplomatic solution could have been reached if we would just try and not get trigger happy.

Edward Atkeson: Well, we have been warning and warning and warning, with no response. And the President placed American prestige on the line when he warned President Milosevic that we would attack if he did not agree to our proposal. So the fat was in the fire, and there was no way that we could avoid this without irreparably damaging US or NATO prestige.

Question: How long can we expect these bombings to go on?

Edward Atkeson: I would expect that they would go on for a matter of weeks. There are many different types of targets that we have to engage. Right now, they are primarily after strategic targets and the air defense system. The next round will be aimed at Serb forces within Kosovo, but they are quite dispersed, and it will take quite some time to inflict significant damage on them. And it is not clear that we have a strategy in mind if these initial attacks are not successful, at least if they do not change Mr. Milosevic's mind. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Question: Any word of U.S. Army who are deployed in Bosnia doing anything about this situation?

Edward Atkeson: No, I think that's very unlikely, because we have thrown down our forces there. They are about half of what we originally sent in. And we have withdrawn much of the heavy equipment that we brought in there. There's also the danger that if we withdrew forces from Bosnia, that the Bosnian Serbs might take advantage of that to attack the Bosnian Muslims or whatever residual forces we would leave there.

Question: Why should we bomb someone for protecting their own country?

TIME Online: Cohen says that NATO ground troops are not part of this particular operation, in terms of carrying it out.

Edward Atkeson: Well, we consider this a humanitarian effort, that the Serbs have badly abused their authority over their own people,

TIME Online: Chief of staff Shelton says that they have very little damage assessment as yet.

Edward Atkeson: and there's a general revulsion among Western countries for that behavior. It's a good question.

Question: Isn't there a huge risk that this bombing might merely serve to solidify the Serbian support behind Milosevic?

Edward Atkeson: Yes, there is a risk of that. But I wouldn't say that it's necessarily a huge risk. It's one of the risks that we've taken.

TIME Online: Cohen says that if Milosevic fails to turn to the peace option for Kosovo, NATO will continue with their plan of "deterrence" until he no longer threatens Kosovo.

Edward Atkeson: The people who have made the decisions in Serbia are pretty well solidified now. It's not likely that it will promote additional support for the leadership there.

Question: When the bombing fails -- and it will -- what is the "plan" of action?

TIME Online: What would be your opinion of the best plan?

Edward Atkeson: Well, Mr. Berger, the National Security Advisor, has already said that we would just go on and bomb some more. That's not a very satisfactory answer. But we will just have to wait and see.

Question: What is the time line for completing airstrikes?

Edward Atkeson: I donŐt think that there is any timeline. A great deal will depend on how the American people and their allies view this effort, and as we said before, there's a risk that they will become impatient and simply want to stop. It will depend very heavily on whether there is greater determination to prevail in Washington or in Belgrade. But I would observe that this is their country and the outcome is more important to them than it is to us, so we should not be terribly surprised if we tire before they do.

Question: Don't you think it's wrong to aid the Albanians in liberating SERBIAN land? I mean, nobody here would like it if a certain race tried to liberate US lands and a big country came to their aid (Russia, China).

TIME Online: Chief of Staff Gen. Hugh Shelton is saying that there is no timeline for this operation...Cohen is saying that he hasn't had any conversations today with the Russian Defense Minister about the attack on Yugoslavia.

Edward Atkeson: The objective is not to win the war for the Albanians. The objective is to stop the Serbs from killing the Albanians. The agreement that we wanted the Serbs to sign would have disarmed the Albanian force, and left Kosovo as an autonomous province within Serbia.

TIME Online: Cohen is saying that there's no word on Serbian retaliation against civilians in Kosovo as yet.

Question: It seems to me that the US has diminished the role of the UN with the actions in Iraq, Bosnia, and now Kosovo. What are your thoughts? Should we just demand that the UN handle this problem?

Edward Atkeson: Secretary General Annan of the UN was just on television earlier this afternoon, and while he was sympathetic to the Western effort to protect the Kosovars, he was very critical of the principle of having UN members attack a country without the approval of the Security Council. So apparently he believes our heart may be in the right place, but our head is not.

Question: Are air defenses in Kosovo similar to those in Iraq?

Edward Atkeson: I would say that they are more sophisticated than in Iraq, but generally similar. But they are better hidden because of the terrain and the weather, and I would expect that the Serb operators are probably more competent than the Iraqis.

TIME Online: Cohen is now reiterating the US's interest in a strong NATO and US relationship wit Russia pointing out that the Russians are not pleased with Milosevic either.

Question: About how much land do the Tomahawk missiles destroy?

Edward Atkeson: Well there are two different Tomahawk missiles: the one fired from a ship that has about a 1000 pound warhead, and those on the B-52's that are double that size. So, in World War II we used to call bombs like that blockbusters. They have different kinds of warheads. Some of them are simple high explosives to do destruction above ground level, and others have hardened warheads that can penetrate may feet of concrete before they explode. And I would expect that there's a good mix of these being fired. News reports cited the figure of about 100 missiles from both naval and air.

TIME Online: NO indications of any losses or casualties by NATO forces. Cohen believes that all NATO planes safely returned to their bases.

Question: Would the draft be reinstated if we went to war, and what would it take for it to be reinstated?

Edward Atkeson: Well, if we went to war, if we had a declaration of war as the Constitution calls for, that would be such a major act that the entire country would be mobilized, but right now, there is no peer competitor with the United States in the military field. In other words, we're the biggest kid on the block.

Question: If, in fact, that this action is considered justified...why are they using AMERICAN planes, warships, Tomahawks, SOLDIERS? I don't see any other country putting up what we have?

Edward Atkeson: Oh yes, other forces are involved. Certainly the British are involved, and I would expect that we would find that French aircraft and possibly naval units from several different countries. This is a very large effort. Certainly the Italian navy would have patrol responsibilities. And the Germans may be making some kind of contribution.

Question: What is stopping the Serbs from launching an attack on the 12,000 NATO forces in Macedonia?

Edward Atkeson: The main thing that stops them -- or I should say the main thing that deters them -- is their recognition of NATO's capabilities for defending itself. It would be a long way for them to send troops all the way down to Macedonia. We would interdict the rail lines and road lines, and it would be very expensive for them. They could make small raids, but I would not foresee a major counter-offensive.

Question: Will the KLA join forces with NATO and, if so, would we be construed as terrorist?

Edward Atkeson: I think it's unlikely that NATO would want to get very close to the KLA. Our whole argument has been that we are impartial between the KLA and the Serbs, that we are trying to pacify the area, not to give an advantage to one side or the other.

Question: How is the national interest threatened because of this conflict?

Edward Atkeson: Our national interests are in preventing wars all over the world. It's unhealthy for us and for our friends and allies. It's bad for business, and it's very damaging from a prestige point of view for both the US and NATO to stand by while one very strong force inflicts casualties on innocent bystanders. It's kind of the old rule: do something, even if it's wrong.

TIME Online: Any closing thoughts?

Edward Atkeson: Yes, I think that the principal thing we have to guard against here is not being misled that we can readily become involved in other people's wars without paying a price, that this is a risky undertaking -- we're not sure what the outcome will be. But we hope that the situation will be better when we're finished with the effort than when we started. My criticism with what we're doing is that I don't think that it's good strategy to pin our actions on hope. That's not a good basis for determining your military enterprises.

TIME Online: Thank you very much for joining us this afternoon, Major General Atkeson.


TIME.com Special Report: A Kosovo Primer


 
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