TIME Online: Our topic this afternoon is the NATO bombardment of Yugoslavia, and joining us right now to discuss the situation is TIME senior writer Bruce Nelan, who formerly worked as TIME's bureau chief in Moscow. Welcome, Bruce.

Bruce Nelan: Glad to be here.

TIME Online: Let's go to the first question.

Question: Are there any reports of the bombings of today?

Bruce Nelan: It's too early The raids are still on. The normal procedure is that they say nothing until the planes return. I think it's safe to say that this is the second day of a two or three day package aimed at defeating Serbia's air defense network.

Question: Do you know anything about the embassy in Macedonia being overrun?

Bruce Nelan: I did not hear that it was overrun. I heard that there were serious demonstrations by ethnic Serbs, and that some of the demonstrators did in fact get inside the embassy compound, but not inside the embassy itself. Security officers apparently came in to reinforce the embassy, to restore some semblance of order.

Question: Mr. Nelan, Earlier today, Secretary of State Albright said that if the strikes fail to bring Milosevic to the negotiating table, they will be used to diminish his ability to wage war and will continue for "as long as necessary." Is this not a dangerous situation for NATO?

Bruce Nelan: It's certainly dangerous, by several different measurements. But with reference to what Secretary Albright had to say, it highlights a problem that surrounds the entire effort against Serbia, and that is, defining what we call the endgame. If Milosevic does not either stop attacking the Kosovars, or agree to some kind of peace settlement, what do we do then? The truth is no one in the administration has clearly enunciated the answer to that question. This phrase that's now come into use of deter or degrade the Yugoslav forces, is a cover for the fact that airpower is limited in its effect on the ground, and at some point the NATO allies would simply have to agree when to stop. Now, some experts believe that the airstrikes will in fact be able to effectively put the Yugoslav army out of commission. But other experts say that is not possible. They say the army is already there, and that all they need to fight the Kosovars are the small arms and vehicles that there are there already. This is one of the unanswered questions about the airstrikes.

Question: Is it likely that Milosevic will be bombed into surrendering?

Bruce Nelan: Hmmmm. Here again, the experts differ. Some believe Milosevic will do anything at all to remain in power, and if he thinks surrendering Kosovo or signing a peace agreement will work to his advantage, he might do it and blame NATO for forcing him to it. Others say, on the other hand, that he canÕt really let go of Kosovo because his position in office is based on Serbian nationalism, and Kosovo is widely called the cradle of Serbian nationalism. For him to hand it over, even to an autonomy status, might be enough to bring other nationalists out against Milosevic.

Question: Is there any news on whether Montenegro is going to declare independence?

Bruce Nelan: No, at the moment, it's just speculation. It's based on the fact that of course the government of Montenegro has not supported Serbia's repression in Kosovo, and indeed the Montenegran leaders seem to care not too much for Mr. Milosevic. So the speculation has some credibility behind it, but I have nothing solid to indicate it's about to happen.

Question: How would we feel if another sovereign stepped in during our civil war?

Bruce Nelan: A good question. There are some essayists who have used the example of potential British intervention in the American Civil War. If Britain had done it, in all likelihood, the US would have declared war on Great Britain. But this intervention is challenging all of the old rules, and changing some of them. Perhaps the relevant rule here is: might makes right.

Question: So with most of our attention being focused on a new problem, do you think it is possible for Saddam to make a move?

Bruce Nelan: If Saddam could think of one, I'm sure he would try it. But he is being carefully watched by satellites and by the air patrols that continue to fly over northern and southern Iraq. To my knowledge, those patrols have not been affected by the Kosovo raids.

Question: How will things change if Russia gets involved militarily?

Bruce Nelan: Russia cannot become involved militarily, really. Russia could ship weaponry to Serbia, but if it did, it would be breaking the embargo that was put in place by the UN Security Council. This would put Russia in a spot that it probably does not want to be in, while it is actively soliciting economic aid from the world community. But militarily Russia at the moment is so weak and so disorganized, that it could not intervene.

Question: Do we know where Milosevic is?

Bruce Nelan: I assume he's in Belgrade going about his business. The government of Serbia is still going about its business, and there's no indication that he is going to take off into the hills. There's no indication that he's being targeted. He's probably wise to stay in downtown Belgrade because NATO bombing has been very carefully designed to avoid civilian casualties.

Question: What's the status of the reporters being expelled from the country?

Bruce Nelan: I think almost all the reporters are out now. They were rounded up, and earlier today there were reports that a Belgian reporter was being held, but I think he was released. Almost all of the reporters from NATO countries have either left on their own or been expelled. I donÕt know the status of reporters from non-NATO countries, though.

Question: Do you think there is a chance of this turning into World War Three?

Bruce Nelan: No, I don't. I even have doubts that it's likely to have any significant spillover, as they keep warning us. The war in Bosnia went on for many years, during which officials in London and Washington and Paris were constantly telling us that we had to do something or else the war would spread through Europe or even central Asia. I didn't think it was likely to happen then, and I donÕt think it's likely to happen now. A real danger is a renewed stream of Kosovar Albanian refugees flooding into Macedonia and Albania. They could perhaps carry the civil war with them, and could produce a groundswell in Macedonia and Albania for the creation of a greater Albania. In other words, a movement to change the borders of several of the nations in the region. This could, in fact, be very dangerous, partly because NATO would probably have to sort it out. But even in this worst case, I do not believe that Greece and Turkey would become involved in the fighting, nor would there be any threat of a world war.

Question: NATO is only authorized by the treaty to attack if a nation is threatening a member nation...this is not the case here. Why is NATO involved?

Bruce Nelan: Good question. NATO is involved because it, the alliance, decided that it would lose credibility as a force for stability in Europe if it sat still and did nothing about the latest wave of atrocities in Yugoslavia. The legality of this action is debatable and is being debated. The Serbian government, the Russian government, and the Chinese government have all maintained that the action is illegal because the UN Security Council did not specifically authorize it. The US insists NATO has authorization of a general sort from previous UN Security Council resolutions. But even France and Germany have had doubts about the legality of the action. So the alliance only came together on this after the doubters decided that Milosevic's attacks on the Kosovars were too great to be tolerated.

Question: Why wasnÕt America so gung-ho on stopping the genocide in Rwanda?

Bruce Nelan: Or Sudan, perhaps? Or Cambodia? It's a very good question. This is an action that comes surrounded by questions. As a practical matter, the answer is probably the one I mentioned earlier, that is, that NATO is a European security force and could not tolerate these events in Europe.

Question: How did such hatred among these people develop?

Bruce Nelan: There have been many books written on this topic. The simple answer probably would date the hostility to the 15th century perhaps. But it could easily be dated earlier than that. It seems essentially to involve a religious division. The Yugoslavs were all South Slavs, so ethnically, they were identical. Ethnically and linguistically, in fact. But along the way, they became divided into Roman Catholic, Eastern Orthodox and Muslim communities. These divisions were made worse during the Balkan wars at the turn of the century, during the first world war, and most especially during the Second World War. During World War II, Croatia was a Nazi puppet state, which ran concentration camps in which thousands of Serbs and Muslims were slaughtered. At the same time, many Muslims in the area sympathized with Hitler and joined SS units. Serbs on the other hand, split between communist forces led by Tito, and royalist forces led Mihajlovic. None of this has been forgotten, and the old debts are even now being settled. As to Kosovo, it was originally the heart of Serbia, but as more and more Albanians moved in, the Serbs moved north into Serbia proper. But they retain their fierce nationalist feeling about Kosovo. It's a mess.

TIME Online: That's all the time we have this afternoon, but before you go, do you have any

TIME Online: closing thoughts?

Bruce Nelan: In spite of the efforts I've made to answer these questions, most of the really good questions remain without answers. We donÕt know how this is going to turn out. Perhaps the worst of it is that the Clinton Administration doesn't know how it's going to come out, or how it expects it to come out, either.

TIME Online: Thank you very much for joining us, Bruce.

Bruce Nelan: I'm very pleased to have been with you, and I hope we can do this again.

TIME Online: Good-bye. We hope so, too.

TIME.com Special Report: A Kosovo Primer

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