Timehost: For the third time in U.S. history, a President will face an impeachment inquiry. The House today voted to begin its impeachment inquiry, with 31 Democrats joining the Republicans. And joining us now to look at today's historic events, Karen Tumulty, TIME's White House correspondent. Thanks for being with us.

Karen Tumulty: It's good to be here.

Timehost: Here's our first question...

BeachManAlex asks: Basically, can you explain the impeachment process?

Karen Tumulty: Sure. From here, the Judiciary Committee begins a series of hearings -- at the end of which, the committee votes whether to issue any articles of impeachment. The same question then goes to the floor of the House, which acts sort of like a grand jury in a criminal case. If the House votes out articles of impeachment, they then go to the Senate, which is more like the jury in a courtroom. It takes 67 senators to actually convict the President and remove him from office.

brunimedia asks: Can Gingrich lose if this drags on past Jan/Feb as indicated in your article this week?

Karen Tumulty: You bet. Right now, his most important constituency is the Republican base, those very conservative voters who can be counted on to actually show up at the polls in what is expected to be a very low-turnout election. But after the election, he must play to a far broader audience and the polls would indicate this audience does not have an unlimited appetite for this scandal.

Wstn_cowboy_type asks: Isn't this a foregone conclusion? Won't the Senate fail to convict even if and when the House votes for impeachment?

Karen Tumulty: That certainly seems to be the most likely scenario, if the process gets that far. The Republicans probably will not pick up more than five seats in this election, which would leave them seven seats short of what they need to impeach.

Timehost: There was little doubt that the House would take the action it took today...What had been in doubt was how many Democrats would go along with Republicans. What's your read on the number, 31, who voted for the inquiry?

Karen Tumulty: It was surprisingly low. Near the lowest that anyone had estimated. And while the vote itself, measured by its historic significance, is very bad for Bill Clinton, the number of Democrats who voted to proceed suggests that this may be as bad as it gets for Bill Clinton. It will be even harder to get Democrats to vote to actually impeach the President, rather than to simply move the process forward, and given the enormous public opposition to removing the President, a fair number of Republicans would also have trouble taking that next step.

kixs asks: if they do go ahead with the impeachment how long will it take? Won't he almost be out of office by the time it is completed?

Karen Tumulty: That's a good question. One of the things the Democrats wanted, but did not get, was a time limit on this investigation. Once we get into late 1999, this question - if it still lingers - becomes as much about Al Gore as it is about Bill Clinton.

HiIamSara asks: Do you think that President Clinton will resign before they might impeach him?

Karen Tumulty: Certainly another politician might have done so long ago. But Bill Clinton's life has been a series of political near-death experiences, and he has never given up, even when everyone else had written him off.

reva2_98 asks: How come everyone I talk to thinks he was wrong and should be impeached, and yet the polls show that he has increased in popularity?

Karen Tumulty: Certainly there are parts of the country where people strongly dislike Bill Clinton and always have. But the pollsters tell us that most people see a strong economy and their own lives going along pretty well, and they don't want to do anything to rock that boat. And there is another segment of the population that is quite uneasy about the enormous power that Ken Starr has had.

Timehost: Is there anything that COULD cause Bill Clinton's popularity to plummet?

Karen Tumulty: Certainly if the economy goes into the tank, or if Ken Starr has some dramatic new piece of evidence that we have not seen yet. But the polls have been remarkably solid through the nine months of this scandal. People seem to like the things that he says, he stands for, even if they don't particularly like him.

Goombar1 asks: Can they impeach a popular president?

Karen Tumulty: Gerald Ford, when he was in the House, once said something to the effect that an impeachable offense is what Congress decides it is. Certainly, it is difficult to imagine 535 politicians doing something against the will of the public.

Majic_Fingers_98 asks: What 5 seats do you think they will pick up?

Timehost: The questioner is asking about the Republicans...

Karen Tumulty: In the Senate, there are a number of them in play. The Republicans seem almost certain to knock off Carol Mosley Braun in Illinois and are going to have enormous trouble holding John Glenn's seat in Ohio . Others on the endangered species list include Barbara Boxer in California, Patty Murray in Washington, Harry Reid in Nevada, and Ernest Hollings in South Carolina.

PSAJONES asks: Personally, I think Hillary knew or suspected the allegations were correct since January. Why do you think her popularity is high according to the polls?

Karen Tumulty: There is a lot of public sympathy for her as a woman who has been wronged, and most people admire the dignity with which she has carried this off.

Wolf_factory asks: I am writing from England. Do Americans realize that the rest of the world is baffled by your puritanical reaction?

Karen Tumulty: Certainly a number of foreign leaders have said just that. But people in foreign countries also seem to be fascinated by this scandal. And certainly, no small number of political leaders in England have had to resign as the result of sex scandals.

Crazyloonlane asks: Do you think Kenneth Starr has used this as his first shot, and he has something bigger?

Timehost: Or at least something else?

Karen Tumulty: That is the big question many Republicans have, which is why so many were against setting a time limit on this investigation. Others have told me in my reporting that they are furious at Ken Starr because he has not shown his hand and has left them all dangling.

gal_of_the_universe asks: Does the President have any options to get him out of this crisis?

Karen Tumulty: As we wrote in TIME this week, the chances are very good that everyone will find it in their interest after the election to strike some sort of deal, probably one that would have the President admitting he lied in exchange for a lesser punishment such as a censure and possibly a big fine.

HerculePoirot1 asks: Do you think Al Gore's problems will surface now?

Karen Tumulty: The funny thing is that Clinton's problems always seem to hurt Gore as much as they hurt Clinton. Polls show the vice-president looking much weaker against likely Republican candidates in 2000 than he did a year ago. And with Janet Reno considering whether to appoint an independent counsel in connection with the campaign finance scandal, Gore has more than a few things to worry about these days.

ivysgirl asks: Is it possible Clinton may be indicted for crimes after his term in office?

Karen Tumulty: That is entirely possible, and is one of the reasons that Ken Starr would have to be involved in any deal that Clinton strikes with Congress.

Timehost: Here's a follow-up...

HerculePoirot1 asks: Who do you think the republicans will run for office in 2000?

Karen Tumulty: Right now, the man to beat is Texas Governor George W. Bush. But early front-runners have a bad habit of falling back into the pack.

Crazyloonlane asks: Poor Chelsea -- what about her?

baby2417 asks: How does Chelsea feel?

Karen Tumulty: No one really knows how she feels, and one of the few areas in which the media has shown an admirable restraint in this whole scandal is in obeying the Clintons' wishes that we leave her alone. However, in those first miserable days after Clinton's testimony and the disastrous television speech that followed, Chelsea did her parents an enormous service by appearing in public with them and reminding people that Clinton has a lot at stake personally as well as politically in this scandal.

Quadrophenia_1 asks: Why would the Republicans want to throw out Clinton and give Gore a chance to prove he is worthy of the office?

Karen Tumulty: Good question. Many Republicans will admit privately that the best thing that could happen to them would be to have a wounded, disgraced Clinton limping through his last two years in office.

ivysgirl asks: Are presidential candidates showing a reluctance to run in the face of possible exposures of their private lives?

Timehost: Or any politicians?

Karen Tumulty: Certainly George W. Bush has expressed that concern. But thus far, there still seem to be lots of people looking at running for president in 2000.

BeachManAlex asks: If impeachment fails, do you think he will be censured?

Karen Tumulty: No. If it gets that far, it will probably come down to impeachment or nothing. Censure is more likely to come as the result of some deal to avoid impeachment.

Blondie_tx_ asks: How will this affect the American people and our kids? Is this the kind of president we want our kids looking up to?

Karen Tumulty: I know that I have already had a couple of conversations with my six-year-old that I was not ready to have with him so young. And I'm sure other parents are finding this painful as well.

Timehost: As you watched House members today make their arguments -- what struck you most?

Karen Tumulty: I was impressed, as always, with the eloquence of members like Henry Hyde. But overall, I found it a rather lackluster, anticlimactic debate.

Timehost: Because it appeared completely partisan?

Karen Tumulty: Because it did not have the feel of a genuine debate, but was rather a series of very predictable speeches.

Timehost: Here's a question looking to the future...

HerculePoirot1 asks: What is the chance of any Democratic senators voting to impeach?

Timehost: I think the questioner means to convict

Karen Tumulty: It is very hard to tell right now, because we are still a long way from that point.

notreally2 asks: What do you think will happen with this "open ended" investigation?

Karen Tumulty: I may be wrong , but I still have trouble seeing this drag on for many more months. I still think we are headed for some sort of deal, in essence a plea bargain.

Timehost: How will the impeachment inquiry affect the budget talks?

Karen Tumulty: Probably not much. Everyone seems very anxious to get out of town, and the White House is finding the Republicans surprisingly accommodating on many of what had been sticking points.

Timehost: Here's the 64 dollar question... Many people have been asking what you think -- will Clinton actually be impeached? What's your prediction?

Karen Tumulty: My prediction, which is not worth much, is that everyone is going to see it in their interest to not allow the process to get that far.

Timehost: We're going to have to wrap things up... so I'd just like to ask whether you have any closing thoughts?

Karen Tumulty: Only that people should watch this election very closely to see how things are likely to turn out for Bill Clinton. A Republican landslide dramatically increases the pressure for impeachment. A less decisive result will have everyone looking for a deal.

Timehost: Thank you very much, Karen Tumulty, for joining us this evening.

Karen Tumulty: Well, thank you.

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