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But by some measures, bin Laden's demise is just as important a symbol of success. And the return of bin Laden could complicate Bush's pursuit of Saddam by creating a conflict between his goals, or at least the appearance of one. Eager to show that Bush has not shifted all his attention to Saddam, Rice pointed out that Bush still "begins his day on the war on terrorism and the threat levels and the threat information we have about the United States. This is the central focus of this Administration." White House officials also leaked word that a high-ranking al-Qaeda operative was recently captured and is in U.S. custody. They would not say who he was but acknowledged that he was not one of bin Laden's top aides.
With almost certain confirmation that bin Laden is alive, the discussion turns back to how serious a threat he is and why he can't be caught. In a Time/CNN poll, a sizable portion, 42%, of Americans surveyed said the tape made them more worried about impending terrorist attacks, although 56% remained at the same level of anxiety. The voice on the tape calmly and chillingly predicts that al-Qaeda's enemies "will be killed just as you kill and will be bombed just as you bomb. And expect more that will further distress you." While there's no real pattern in forewarnings from al-Qaeda, intelligence analysts take the words at face value. A recorded al-Jazeera broadcast from bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri in early October was followed by the deadly bombing in Bali that killed more than 180. The voice's condemnation of key allies in the U.S. antiterrorism war—Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Australia—put foreign governments on alert for another major hit. Bin Laden also named Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld—he calls them "the White House gangsters"—and that has counterterrorism experts worried those officials might be personally targeted.
So the bin Laden tape provided a chilling context for the steady stream of intelligence chatter that the CIA has picked up in the past three weeks, much like what it saw before Sept. 11, 2001. More suspicious phone calls and more reports from field agents suggested al-Qaeda suspects appeared to be on the move. "There's more activity on the communications circuits used by dirty guys," says a senior U.S. intelligence official. "There are more cryptic conversations by people making plans to travel." The FBI's graphic warning of "spectacular" attacks causing "mass casualties, severe damage to the U.S. economy and maximum psychological trauma" raised anxiety even as agents acknowledged they had no idea when, where or how the terrorists might strike. While the Administration did not raise the national alert level from yellow to orange, officials are bracing for the worst and operating on a hair trigger regarding any suspicious activity. Before 9/11, the FBI preferred to keep its targets under surveillance until agents acquired hard evidence of a specific plot. Today the mission is disruption first.
Why is bin Laden speaking now, and what does the audiotape say about him? U.S. intelligence analysts speculate bin Laden may have rejected videotape because it would reveal that he was ailing, wounded or disguised. They say they detected labored breathing in the tape—it is rumored that bin Laden suffers from kidney disease—and think he was reading from a script. But he may simply have used audio to make sure no watcher could glean information useful in tracking him down. Skilled at propaganda, bin Laden could have reasons for speaking now other than to signal an attack. "Terror groups don't like to be upstaged," says Brian Jenkins, a counterterrorism expert at the Rand Corp. "Bin Laden is reminding us that with all the world's attention focused on Iraq, al-Qaeda is still alive and well." And he may have wanted to not only reassert control over his organization but also dominate extremist movements flourishing elsewhere. By highlighting incidents that his organization probably did not mastermind, like the Chechen assault on the Moscow theater, "he's implying that those actions are a part of a campaign over which he presides," says Jenkins.
So where is he? The U.S. has followed leads putting him in a wide variety of places in the Islamic world, from Yemen to Saudi Arabia to Iran. But the trail went cold at the Afghan border with Pakistan in December 2001, when a voice believed to be his was last overheard in Tora Bora. Senior Bush aides admit privately that the month it took to build up forces for the invasion of Afghanistan gave bin Laden and his senior leaders plenty of time to carry out evacuation plans. The military is a lot less keen to confess that it blew its best opportunity to nab him in the December assault on Tora Bora. Washington committed too few American troops to the hunt, even some U.S. military officers say, while relying on iffy Afghan warlords to do the dirty work and indifferent Pakistani forces to cut off escape routes. Bin Laden vanished so completely that a few Administration officials regularly pronounced him dead.
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