SUMMARY: TIME Poll
	Read the latest statistics about the 2004 presidential race

Posted Sunday, July 11, 2004

TIME Poll Methodology

The latest TIME Poll was conducted with a random sample (RDD) of 1,192 American adults. Included in this sample are 1,003 registered voters, and 774 "likely voters" (which include those who are registered and most likely to turn out to vote). The survey was conducted under the direction of Dr. Ken Dautrich and Chris Barnes. Interviewing was conducted by telephone from July 6 through July 8, 2004. Sampling error for the 1,192 registered voters is +/-2.8% at the 95% level of confidence. Sampling error for the 1,003 registered voters is +/-3.1%. Sampling error for the 774 likely voters is +/ 3.5%. Except where indicated, all figures presented in this analysis are for registered voters.

The Presidential Race

If the election were held today, 49% of likely voters would vote for Kerry and 45% say they would vote for Bush, with only 6% undecided. Among all registered voters, 48% support Kerry and 43% pick Bush, with 9% not sure who they would vote for.

In the TIME Poll conducted in early June, 49% of likely voters supported Bush, 48% picked Kerry, and 3% were undecided. The immediate "bounce" for Kerry from the selection of Edwards is not apparent, although Bush's support dropped 4 points since early June.

With Nader in the race, 47% of likely voters pick Kerry, 45% choose Bush, 4% support Nader, and 5% are undecided. One month ago, 48% picked Bush, 43% picked Kerry, and 5% supported Nader. The selection of Edwards does appear to have had an impact on voters in the south. In the June Poll, southern voters opted for Bush over Kerry by a margin of 56% to 35%. In the new poll, southern voters continue to support Bush over Kerry, but by a smaller margin of 48% to 41%.

A Divided Electorate

The TIME Poll finds that there continues to be much angst with the current direction of the country. Only 41% of voters say the country is headed in right direction, while 50% say it is off on the wrong track. Also, voters are now more likely to say it was "wrong' for the U.S. to go to war with Iraq (50%) than to say this was the "right" choice (44%). Consequently, this election is largely viewed by voters as a referendum on Bush. Currently, 43% think Bush deserves to be re-elected, while 53% say it is time for someone else to be president. The 43% figure should be watched closely, as past elections have demonstrated that this figure closely approximates the percentage of votes that an incumbent receives on election day. The 53% who want someone else is also interesting in that it is higher than the 48% support Kerry is getting from registered voters. This indicates that there are about 5% of voters who want someone other than Bush but are not yet sure if Kerry is a good alternative.

Democrats largely think it is time for a change (89%) and Republicans think Bush deserves to be re-elected (85%). Independent voters – a group which is key in deciding who will win – are more of the opinion that it is time for someone else to be president (58%) than they are to say that Bush deserves re-election (39%).

This electorate is deeply divided along partisan lines and by candidate choice. Combined with the uncharacteristically low percentage of undecided voters, these deep divisions provide the context for a highly charged electorate. This TIME Poll demonstrates these partisan divisions quite well:

· 86% of Democrats support Kerry and 85% of Republicans support Bush
· 74% of Republicans say the country is moving in the right direction, while 77% of Democrats think the country is off on the wrong track.
· 79% of Republicans say going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do, while 73% of Democrats say it was the wrong thing to do.

These partisan differences help produce large differences in the Kerry voters vs. Bush voters:

· 83% of Kerry voters say that the U.S. was wrong to go to war with Iraq, while 83% of Bush voters say the U.S. was right in going to war with Iraq.
· 85% of Kerry supporters say the country is on the 'wrong track," while 79% of Bush voters say the country is moving in the right direction.
· 87% of Kerry voters disapprove of Bush job performance, while 93% of Bush voters approve of his job.
· 86% of Kerry voters say Bush has done a "poor" job handling the economy, while 83% of Bush voters say the President has done a "good' job.

Also, the divisions in the electorate that produced the 2000 presidential result are still apparent in today's electorate: 91% of Gore voters in 2000 support Kerry, while 82% of Bush voters remain with Bush.

The TIME Poll shows that 43% of voters are paying "very close attention" and another 30% are paying "fairly close attention" to the 2004 presidential election race. However, Democratic voters are particularly charged up, with 51% saying they are paying very close attention, compared to 41% of Republican voters.

Kerry too Liberal? Bush too Conservative?

The "liberal" tag on Kerry is only a slightly greater liability than the conservative tag on Bush. For example, 32% of voters say that John Kerry is "too liberal" to be president. By contrast, 27% think that George W. Bush is "too conservative" to be president. However, among Independent voters the political liability of these ideological labels are a virtual washout: 32% of independents say Kerry is too liberal, and 34% think Bush is too conservative.

Edwards vs. Cheney

Edwards does more for Kerry than Cheney does for Bush: 24% say Edwards as the Vice Presidential candidate makes them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to 11% who say Cheney makes them more likely to vote for Bush. And while only 6% of voters say that Edwards makes them less likely to vote for Kerry, fully 23% say Cheney makes them less likely to vote for Bush.

Fifty-two percent of voters say that Edwards was either an "excellent" (19%) or "good" (33%) choice to be the running-mate on the Democratic ticket. Eighteen percent say this was an "only fair" choice, and 9% say it was a "poor" choice. Twenty-two percent offer no opinion on the choice of Edwards.

President Bush's likely choice of Dick Cheney to once again be his running-mate is less positive. Forty-five percent say that Cheney is either an "excellent" (14%) or "good" (31%) pick; 18% say it is "only fair," and fully 32% say Cheney is a "poor" choice. Five percent have no opinion.

While Edwards is more of an unknown (49% have no general impression of him yet), his favorable rating outpaces his unfavorable rating by a margin of 39% to 12%. By contrast Cheney's favorable (41%) and unfavorable (40%) ratings are essentially the same.

By better than a 10 to 1 margin, Democratic voters impression of Edwards is more favorable (54%) than unfavorable (3%), indicating that he was a good choice to help rally the party faithful. Among Republicans, 24% have a favorable impression of Edwards while 25% have an unfavorable impression of him. – not bad given the deep partisan divisions cited above. By contrast, 14% of Democratic voters have a favorable impression of Cheney while 64% have an unfavorable impression of him. Cheney does, however, get strong favorable ratings from 73% of Republican voters.

When asked directly which of the 2 vice presidential candidates would make a better president, 47% pick Edwards and 38% say Cheney. Independent voters, by a 53% to 34% margin, favor Edwards over Cheney.

Edwards' Litigator Background

Having been a trial lawyer does not appear to be a significant problem for Edwards. 35% say this makes them more favorable to Edwards compared to 28% who say less favorable. Even more striking, 55% say that his trial lawyer experience shows that Edwards fights for the average person against big companies, while only 26% say that his trial lawyering contributed to the frivolous lawsuit problem. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats, 54% of Independents, and 32% of Republicans say that Edwards litigator background shows that he is someone who fights for the average person.

Also, voters are about equally divided over whether Edwards' political experience of one term in the U.S. Senate makes them more favorable (28%) or less favorable (27%) toward him.

Forty-four percent of voters believe that John Edwards is qualified to serve as president compared to only 25% who say he is not qualified. Fully 31% say they don't know enough about Edwards yet to offer an opinion on this.

Cheney's Albatross: Halliburton

Halliburton is a huge negative for Cheney—51% say that his past association with the company that has received billions of dollars in federal contracts to help rebuild Iraq makes them less favorable toward him, and only 16% say more favorable. Voters have a mixed reaction to Vice President Cheney's strong advocacy and defense of the U.S. invasion of Iraq: 42% say this makes them more favorable toward Cheney, while 39% say it makes them less favorable toward him.

Cheney's overall job rating is 41% approve, 47% disapprove. Seventy-three percent of Democrats disapprove, while 76% of Republicans approve of the job that Cheney is doing as vice president. Among Independents, 36% approve and 48% disapprove.

Fifty-three percent say that President Bush should keep Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket for the 2004 election, while 36% say that Bush should select someone else.

Other Notes from the TIME Poll:

The McCain endorsement: 20% of voters say that Senator John McCain's endorsement of George W. Bush in the recent flight of TV ads makes them more supportive of Bush, and 13% say it makes them less supportive. However, fully 65% say the McCain endorsement makes no difference in how they feel about the President.

The current approval rating of President Bush among all American adults is 48%, which is unchanged from the TIME Poll conducted one month ago.

Twelve percent of voters say they have been to see the Michael Moore movie Fahrenheit 9/11. Twenty percent of Democratic voters, 7% of Republicans, and 13% of Independents claim to have seen the movie. Among those who have been to the movie, 83% say they are planning to vote for Kerry and 16% say they'll vote for Bush.

The Poll's biggest non-finding: no gender gap. Women prefer Kerry over Bush 48% to 44%; men are 47% to 43%.

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