TIME Poll Results: Voters and John Kerry
	A new survey says the election is mostly a referendum on President Bush
	By MARK SCHULMAN

Posted Sunday, July 25, 2004
Results based on registered voters, except for "horse race," which is "likely voters"

As Kerry takes center-stage in Boston, his prime objective is to introduce and define himself to many voters, particularly on security issues. Only less than 1 in 3 voters (29%) report knowing "a great deal" about Kerry. Not unexpectedly, 2 in 3 know "a great deal" about Bush.

John Kerry heads into this week's Democratic convention holding a barely significant lead among likely voters over incumbent President George W. Bush in the two-way race, 48%-44%. In the three-way race with Nader, little changes, with Kerry at 46%, Bush at 43%, and Nader at 5%. The Nader vote comes mainly from the undecideds in the two-way race. Thus far, Nader does little damage to Kerry's tally. This is little changed from TIME's July 7-9 poll, 47% - 45%.

The bottom-line going into Boston is that the election thus far appears to be far more a referendum on the incumbent than a two-horse race. Almost 3 in 5 voters (57%) say that their vote preference is based more on their opinion of George Bush than their opinion of John Kerry. Kerry remains not well known even to many of his current supporters. Much of what voters are telling us about Kerry at this point is being filtered through their Bush lens.

Therefore, while Kerry appears to be positioned well heading into the Democratic Convention based on the horse-race numbers, the Convention provides both an opportunity and a challenge to Kerry to define who he is and what he stands for, other than being the anti-Bush. Moreover, Kerry needs to strengthen his "leadership" and security credentials in Boston.

The race will pivot on which issues dominate the election. Heading into Boston, the economy and Iraq—two weak issues for Bush—loom large in the minds of registered voters. When asked which single issue voters consider most important in their voting decision, 28% pick the economy, while 21% mention the situation in Iraq. Two stronger issues for Bush, the war on terrorism (18%), and moral values issues (16%) receive slightly fewer mentions as deciding issues.

Kerry's strength thus far is on domestic issues, such as the economy, and on Iraq, where 55% of voters reject Iraq policy. Registered voters give the nod to Kerry over Bush on which candidate they trust most to handle domestic issues, such as the economy (50% Kerry; 42% Bush) and health care (lopsided 52% Kerry; 36% Bush).

Bush beats out Kerry on leadership, security issues and moral values. Bush's strong suit over Kerry, 49% - 42% is in "providing strong leadership in difficult times." Even 1 in 10 Kerry supporters (10%) give Bush the nod here. However, Bush's advantage here is not as hefty as the incumbent may have expected, given the weight he has placed on being the "war president." Bush also beats Kerry on handling the war on terrorism (50% Bush; 42% Kerry), reflecting the Bush campaign's assault on Kerry's abilities in handling terrorism and security issues. Bush also has a slight edge on who would best handle the situation in Iraq (48% Bush; 44% Kerry), even though Bush gets low marks for the Iraq situation in general. Bush outpaces Kerry on "moral values issues,"48%- 40% Kerry.

Other factors are also weighing down Bush's support at this point:

Bush's overall job approval rating remains just at 50%, where it has hovered for some time. Half the registered voters (48%) believe that the in going to war with Iraq.

Most voters now say that the war in Iraq has made the world more dangerous, not safer (55% more dangerous; 37% safer). The brightening job picture has still not turned around Bush's job rating on handling the economy, with 52% disapproving of the President's economic stewardship.

Further undermining Bush's support is a general sense that the country is "off on the wrong track" (42% "right direction," 52% "wrong track"). Moreover, a majority of registered voters (53%) say that it's "time for someone else to be president."

Finally, Bush and Republican attempts to portray themselves to working class whites as "populists" of sorts who attack the "millionaire latte liberals like Kerry," do not seem to be fully effective: voters choose Kerry over Bush, 52%-40%, in "understanding the needs of people like yourself."

TERRORISM: A FADING ISSUE FOR BUSH

Bush's leadership in the fight against terrorism has been a key centerpiece of the President's reelection campaign. Yet Bush does not appear to be getting much mileage from the terrorism issue at this point. As reported above, Bush has only a small edge over Kerry in handling of terrorism—in spite of the Bush campaign pounding on Kerry for being wishy-washy and not supporting spending for anti-terrorism and defense.

Another reason that leadership on terrorism may not be propping up Bush's sagging numbers is that the fear of a terrorist attack on the United States has receded into the background, but has not disappeared, after being the predominant issue following the 9.11 terrorist attacks. Only about one-in-five registered voters (17%) are "very worried" about a terrorist attack on the United States in the next few months, but 48% are "somewhat worried." The 9/11 Commission Report was released in the midst of interviewing for this survey.

Bush's success in creating the Homeland Security Department and fighting the war on terrorism may be a reason that terrorism has receded as an issue. By a lopsided 58% - 38%, registered voters say that the United States has made "real progress" in fighting terrorism since 9/11.

Voters are mixed on how closely they have been following warnings from the Homeland Security Department about terrorist threat levels. Only 28% say they have been following them "very closely." About half (47%) are following warnings about threat levels "somewhat closely." One in four voters say that they are following the threat levels "not very closely" or "not at all."

Another indicator of the difficulty Bush is having in focusing on terrorism is that only a little more than one in four voters (27%), agree that "having a President who is strong on terrorism is the only issue that matters in their vote." More than two-thirds (70%), disagree. The so-called "security moms" swing vote bolstering Republicans among traditionally Democratic-voting females does not appear to have materialized.

A final indicator that terrorism has faded is that a vast majority (90%) have not changed travel, vacation or any other plans this year as a result of terrorism concerns.

AGAINST POSTPONING ELECTION IF TERRORISM STRIKES

What if there was a terrorist attack just before the November election? A majority (86%) do not want the November election postponed in the event there was a terrorist attack timed near the election. Only 10% would postpone the election.

FIRST LADIES

Laura Bush emerges as a plus in the President's campaign. More than half (56%) of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Laura Bush. Only a few (6%) have an unfavorable opinion of Mrs. Bush and about one-third (38%) have no opinion.

A majority (68%) either doesn't know or don't have an opinion of John Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry. About one-quarter (20%), report having a favorable opinion of Mrs. Heinz Kerry. A little more than one-in-ten (12%) have an unfavorable opinion of her.

About half (53%) of registered voters, report that Laura Bush best fits the role of the first lady. Almost one-in-five (19%) believe that Teresa Heinz Kerry best fits the role. A little more than a quarter (28%) are not sure.

Methodology

This TIME Magazine poll was conducted by telephone July 20-22 among a random sample of 1,260 adults throughout America. The sample includes 1,000 reported registered voters and 882 likely voters. The margin of error is approximately +/- 4% points. SRBI Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing.

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