Updated: Jan 27 1998 12:07PM

President Clinton prepares for his State of the Union address. BARBARA KINNEY/WHITE HOUSE/AFP

WASHINGTON: Last year it was O.J.; this year it's his own past. Bill Clinton's State of the Union address tonight may again be a vain struggle for attention as the Monica Lewinsky scandal threatens to turn the President's annual agenda-setting ce remony into a laughingstock.

TIME Congressional correspondent James Carney reports the Republican leadership has sent out the word: Cutups will not be tolerated. "The directive is 'Respect the office, if not the man,'" he says. "They can't risk any ba cklash." But faces in the crowd still bear watching -- and it's the Democrats whom Clinton must fear. As Carney says: "Gauge how muted is the applause, how pained are the faces. The first sign that Clinton's situation is truly dire will be the loss of his own party's support."

Clinton aides have ruled out any last-minute bombshells designed to steal headlines away from the scandal. "There'll be a few surprises," says Carney, "initiatives that have been held back, that might have made some news for hal f a day -- before. He'll touch on Iraq. But it's nothing that can make a splash in the current environment."

Ratings, at least, won't be a problem; officials are expecting far more than the usual 60 million TV viewers. They'll hear Clinton offer a bal anced budget for 1999 that features spending increases for schools, child care, medical research and the environment. He'll advocate an expansion of Medicare and the Peace Corps, a health care "bill of rights," and a teen-smoking initiative. Senate Majori ty Leader Trent Lott is expected to deliver a restrained -- and purely political -- Republican rebuttal.

But in homes and bars across America, how many of the President's words will provoke giggles ? How many viewers have already dismissed him? Clinto n will come to the podium prepared and determined. But restoring any of his credibility will take a very long speech indeed.

-- Frank Pellegrini