Making Sense of Iran

How did the current protests begin?
Although they may reflect the political coming-of-age of the generation that has grown up amid the tribulations and conflicts of Iran's 20-year Islamic revolution, the immediate spark that set off the student protests was a ban on the pro-reform newspaper Salam. Moderate reformer President Mohammed Khatami has ushered in greater press freedom as part of his drive to democratize Iran, which conservatives are determined to stop. Banning a pro-Khatami newspaper was a shot across the bow of the reformers, and a few hundred students began demonstrating against the ban to show their support for Khatami's reforms. Then, on July 8, police and militant conservatives tried to snuff out the protests by storming dormitories at Tehran University and beating students, one of whom was killed. That brought thousands of students out onto the streets of the capital, and despite beatings by riot police and threats by the authorities, the protest movement quickly grew into a nationwide challenge to the strictures imposed by Iran's conservative religious leaders.

Who really rules in Iran?
The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, holds ultimate executive power and controls the security forces. He is a lifetime appointee of the Council of Experts, a body of 85 religious-political leaders created after the 1979 revolution. Khameini is a conservative, determined to maintain the principle of clerical rule. His allies, led by Speaker Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri, also dominate the 270-seat Majlis (parliament).

The conservatives are being challenged by moderate reformers led by President Mohammed Khatami. The presidency is an elected position, and Iran's voters stunned the conservative clergy in 1997 by choosing Khatami by 69 percent over conservative Nateq-Nouri. That set up a fierce power struggle between moderates who want to democratize Iran and limit arbitrary rule by religious appointees (as well as improve ties with the international community) and conservatives determined to cling to their power. Khameini's conservatives remain more powerful than Khatami's allies within the structures of the state, but public opinion appears to overwhelmingly favor the reformers. Parliamentary elections next year and presidential elections in 2001 will be crucial battles in their power struggle.

Iran holds elections, but is it a democracy?
No, but there are elements of democracy in its system that moderates have used to press for greater democratization. Iran is formally a theocracy, which has made Islamic Sharia the basis of its legal system and in which politicized clergy hold executive power. But its president and parliament are elected, although not exactly freely. All candidates for public office (as well as all laws passed by the Majlis) are vetted by a Council of Guardians appointed by the Supreme Leader, and those deemed opposed to the principles of the 1979 revolution are excluded. The relatively liberal Khatami passed muster because he is a cleric and a veteran of the revolution, and is able to couch his arguments for greater democratization and the rule of law within the discourse of Islamic revolution. Khatami and his allies believe there are sufficient democratic openings to work within the system for reform. But the student demonstrators may not have the patience for Khatami's gradualism.

Iran and the West — a pariah or a partner?
Although the seizure of the American embassy in 1979, support for Islamic terrorist organizations and the death sentence passed on writer Salman Rushdie have all kept Iran internationally isolated, President Khatami has steered Tehran toward rapprochement with the West. It is generally acknowledged that Iran hasn't been involved in acts of terrorism since Khatami's election, and he gave Britain the assurance that it was not his government's policy to pursue the killing of Rushdie. He has called for dialogue with the U.S., which he called a "great people" in contrast with the preferred "Great Satan" characterization used by some of his predecessors, and in May this year held an historic meeting with Pope John Paul II.

Although they're not comfortable with it, even Iran's conservatives recognize the importance of normalizing ties with the West — falling oil prices over the past decade have diminished Iran's ability to go it alone economically, and restoring trade relations with stronger economies has become crucial to Iran's well-being.

Western governments have welcomed Khatami's initiative, and a number of European countries, including Britain, have recently restored ties with Iran. The U.S. has adopted a more cautious position, indicating a willingness to open a dialogue but at the same time avoiding giving Khatami the kiss of death by allowing Iran's conservatives to charge that his policies are blessed by the "Great Satan."